Global recession might help internet growth
Tue, 20 Oct 1998 18:17:44 +1000
What might be some of the effects of a global recession or depression
(forbidden word) on the net?
1. A collapse of the IT/Internet speculative bubble in the US? A downward
"correction" in the highly inflated IT & net stock prices?
2. A bearish attitude towards & a flight of capital from net enterprises & i-commerce?
3. Retrenchments & unemployment in the commercial IT & net sector?
4. A downturn in retail hardware & software sales & ISP subscriptions?
5. A stimulation of low cost native net biz such as open source, free &
6. Some commentators reckon we are heading towards a deflationary economic
environment. This may limit the trend represented by Moore's law & the upward
net usage growth curve. Would this necessarily be a bad thing?
The assumption that biz activity is dependant on growth may be challenged by
the recession/depression. Biz activity will continue but it may be harder to
become a squillionaire. Maybe biz will, through necessity, have to embrace
flatter structures. The equalising nature of the net may play a part in this.
Maybe the net will demonstrate that a steady-state economy is possible & a
There's a lot of avoidance going on around the slow onset of this depression
but it's the imposition of physical reality onto our imaginary economy. We
should regard it as an opportunity rather than a disaster even if it prevents
from becoming as rich as Bill.