[LINK] Gartner's "real time" enterprises to lay off millions
Tue Nov 12 23:01:33 EST 2002
Now you critics have warmed up with Karen, have a go at these predictions
Gartner's "real time" enterprises to lay off millions
By Chris Jenkins, iTnews
Tuesday, 12 November 2002
More efficient IT use, with an emphasis on grids of shared computing
resources, "will lay off millions," according to Gartner vice president and
research director Tom Bittman.
Bittman, the former software chief for IBM's AS/400 mainframes, said some
companies will use the efficiencies Gartner describes as "the real-time
enterprise" to redeploy people onto other projects, but most "should be
able to cut costs".
According to Gartner, "the Real-Time Enterprise is an organisation that
competes by using up to date information to progressively remove delays to
management and execution of critical business processes".
It demands "the death of the accidental enterprise architecture and will
force companies to focus on strategic application integration".
Bittman said the total cost of IT ownership is being driven by skills
requirements. Optical networking efficiency is improving at around 100
percent per year, he said, while computing power improves at about 60
percent per year. Human labour, however, stays about the same. "The real
focus is not to get more efficiency out of the hardware or software, but to
get people out of the equation," he said.
Bittman said when computing is cheap and bandwidth expensive, organisations
tend to keep their computing close to home. "You buy what you need - you
buy boxes," he said.
This leads to over provisioning of computing resources, with most servers
using only five to 15 percent of their capacity. "Your core competency must
be managing those things," he said. "As bandwidth becomes cheaper, it makes
more sense to push computing out."
Bittman said using a combination of grid services (pooled computing
resources) and rules and protocols to mange systems, organisations can
remove much of the human element in systems management, and therefore much
of the cost.
"You manage the policies and the IT infrastructure manages everything below
that," he said, saying this is one of the key ways to exploit the growing
gap between processing capability and the amount of power required by
Bittman identified three types of grid computing. For the enterprise,
"massive parallel processing," he said, is the least important. More
important are shared unique resources, such as a shared industry archive,
with shared generic resources that can be rented out the most important of
Grid services, Bittman predicted, will be used by large corporations
internally by 2006. The following year, grid service providers will offer
services based on a rental model and by 2008, 15 percent of all Fortune 100
companies will use the service provider model "as a safety net at least".
Half of all these companies will use grid services internally, he said.
Most of the innovation in management and shared resources is being done by
"small vendors you haven't heard about," Bittman said. Most of them won't
survive, he said, with the successful one likely to be snapped up by the
In the present environment, Bittman said the inability of Windows NT-based
systems running on Intel architecture to run applications together is a
"fundamental disabler" of more efficient use of computing resources. He
said Microsoft will fix this problem in the server version released after
next January's .Net server, but said the software giant is still moving "at
a glacial pace" to address the problem.
"If Windows doesn't fix it, Linux will," he said. Bittman said that
although Windows remains a much more mature operating system than Linux,
improved use of resources and better management could de-empahise the role
of the operating system, opening the door for slimmed down systems like
You aren't a failure until you start blaming others for your mistakes
-- John Wooten
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