[LINK] BSA Piracy Study

[Chirgwin, Richard]

>From cNet:
http://rss.com.com/2100-1028-995011.html?type=pt&part=rss&tag=feed&subj=news

The reason I mention this is that the study is getting its Sydney release
today, complete with long lunch - I couldn't make it because I'm flying to
the UK tomorrow and am as busy as a cut cat (but hey, Linkers get a rest
from me!).

The study draws one of those "Trousers kill you!" conclusions (ie, everybody
who ever wore trousers has died, so trousers are the problem). The
conclusion this study reaches is that "Countries with the lowest rate of
piracy have the fastest growth in their IT sectors". Thus a correlation is
turned into causality.

Now: cause may be demonstrable. I don't know - and I can't see that the BSA
has tried to demonstrate cause. All that's happening with this study is that
the correlation is being *reported* as cause. Then, by assuming that the
correlation is causal, the study concludes:
>a 10-point reduction in the rate of piracy over four years 
>could generate 1.5 million jobs and $64 billion taxes worldwide, 
>and double the IT sector in countries such as Russia.

Given that the incremental cost of selling another CD is very small, and its
labour input near-zero, I'd love to know where the "1.5 million jobs" come
from. Warehousing?

Another point likely to be missed is more complex, so bear with me. The size
of the IT sector at retail is not the same thing as the "size of the local
IT industry". 

Reducing piracy in Australia would, admittedly, cause a measurable increase
in how much IT spending was recorded by the ABS. But that doesn't equate to
local IT employment or, more importantly, local software production. It
would mostly be a growth in imports, with a small growth in retail
employment (and no, I don't count working behind the counter in Harvey
Norman as an IT job).

However, this is a story likely to come from the press release, because you
can bet that flaws in the methodology will get the following response:
"Well, this was an international study, so I would have to consult the
authors." By the time the answer arrives, the story is dead. It's an old
tactic in IT PR.

- As a professional courtesy, so to speak, I had not mentioned the upcoming
press conference to Link. But since the BSA doesn't mind "scooping" the
press in outpots countries like Australia, I don't think I've done anyone a
disservice in this post. Maybe Linkers could toss up some ideas for the
journalists to take to the press conference?

RC