[LINK] Consumer Electronics Show - wireless DVD player that c onnects to Internet direct

[Chirgwin, Richard]

Craig:

> 
> it's not the PC that us going to be supplanted by the TV, it 
> is the TV that
> will be subsumed by the PC.  same for the VCR.   that's what 
> "convergence"
> means in the context of computers

That's what convergence has meant ever since I first heard the word in about
1990. Hasn't happened yet - not because "it wouldn't work"; but because the
vision is opposed to how people behave. Why would Joe Sixpack "converge" the
TV and PC when he's got three TVs and wants to check his e-mail while the
wife's watching the cricket?

To converge you have to re-engineer the whole home (ie, "uber"
storage/tuner/router/too hard to use, upgrade, patch and protect device in
the middle surrounded by lots of playback points.)

And there's the single point of failure issue, I suppose ... crash the OS,
all screens go dark. That goes not just for "convergence" but the entire
"smart home" vision, I suppose. 

Home owner: "Then the screens went blue, the lights went out, the phone
stopped working and the alarms wouldn't shut off."
Smart House Tech Support: "That's not supposed to happen..."

RC

> 
> dunno what it will mean to Microsoft, but i suspect that the 
> market for these
> devices will end up being dominated by one or more of the 
> embedded linux
> variants - the average end-user may not be able to hack them 
> to do interesting
> things, but there will be a thriving free-software community 
> swapping tweaks
> and patches to make the devices do things that the 
> manufacturers never thought
> of (or didn't want to get sued by the movie/music industry 
> over), and the
> end-users will be able to use those hacks even if they aren't 
> capable of
> writing them.
> 
> Apple will, IMO, survive longer in this market than Microsoft 
> because they're
> already experienced in it and they do have a (mostly 
> deserved) reputation for
> quality and ease-of-use as well as ease-of-learning.
> 
> 
> > but it's a big source of expensive irritation that requires 
> much maintenance,
> > a heap of upgrading and lots of TLC to run properly ... 
> 
> yes.  that will always be the case.  however, people will 
> continue to get
> suckered by marketing people telling them that the next 
> version is easier (or
> has better features), so they will continue to buy things 
> that they aren't
> capable of using fully.
> 
> but that's true of "ancient" technology like VCRs, too.  many 
> people aren't
> capable of even setting the clock on them, let alone setting 
> it up to record a
> show at a particular time, even with ease-of-use features 
> like programming
> codes in TV guides.  they have a VCR solely to play tapes 
> rented from the video
> shop, or bought or borrowed/copied from friends.  and you 
> know what? they get
> enough value out of this basic usage that it makes the 
> purchase worth-while for
> them.
> 
> that's actually a key point - as long as the average consumer 
> gets sufficient
> value out of the device, they aren't going to care that they 
> aren't capable of
> using the device to its full potential.  oddly enough, 
> they're happy to know
> that the machine they spent so much money on *could* do all 
> sorts of amazing
> things and will as soon as they get around to learning how, 
> even though they
> know in the back of their minds that they never will.
> 
> 
> > anything that makes it unnecessary in favour of a hard 
> wired push button
> > consumer box will be something he greets with delight.
> 
> wishing for this is like wishing for weight-lifter's muscles 
> without having to
> do any exercise.
> 
> it is never going to happen[1].  flexible, multi-purpose 
> programmable devices
> (i.e. computers) are inherently complex - even when made as 
> simple as possible
> to use, they are still going to be orders of magnitude more 
> complicated than a
> TV or a toaster.
> 
> 
> btw, oddly enough if you did want a simple "hard wired push 
> button consumer
> box" you are much more likely to get it from a linux/unix 
> base than a MS
> Windows base.  unix systems are not tied to one GUI anywhere 
> near as much as MS
> Windows is - programmers can easily create different 
> interfaces, there aren't
> anywhere near as many in-built assumptions about the input & 
> output devices.
> 
> 
> craig
> 
> [1] actually, one day it may be possible to get the muscles 
> without the
> exercise - it's not inconceivable that targetted chemical 
> triggers for muscle
> development may one day be found.  in fact, it's probably 
> inevitable.  but a
> one-button PC is a fantasy.
> 
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