[LINK] the weather makers
kim.holburn at gmail.com
Mon Apr 9 14:48:22 EST 2007
On 2007/Apr/08, at 11:52 PM, Alan L Tyree wrote:
> I would like to pick up on Stewart's point of computer modelling. I
> don't know the state of "verification" of these models. Most
> predictions are for 50 or more years into the future. I would be far
> more convinced if the models could be verified in one simple way: plug
> in the data from 1900. Does the model predict the 1940-1970 cooling?
> Does it predict the remainder of the century?
I watched an Attenborough show which showed the Hadley Centre which
Flannery also talks about. I don't think you can talk about it like
that. It's nowhere as accurate as that. They can get a very, very
rough model of the last century or two. They were showing the
results of modelling to demonstrate that unless they factor in man-
made CO2 their models are wildly out from 1970 on.
> We are talking **major** disruption to follow the "Precautionary
> Principle". Most of the adverse disruption will be felt by poorer
> nations and people (because it always is). We owe it to those
> people to
> be sure of what it happening.
> And, as Stewart said, the predictions about sea levels and all the
> are removed once again from the basic facts.
> When was the last time that you heard anything good about global
> warming? Longer growing seasons? Higher CO2 levels promoting faster
> plant growth?
Lots. A small increase in warming increases some kinds of
agricultural outputs in some countries. More than than about 2
degrees and the situation gets worse and it's different for each
country and often for different parts of each country.
If it were simply a small change in temperature it might all be fine
but an increase in temperature combined with a reduced amount of rain
like they have had in the sahel region of Africa it is not so good
for agriculture, or people.
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Democracy imposed from without is the severest form of tyranny.
-- Lloyd Biggle, Jr. Analog, Apr 1961
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