[LINK] Pascal's Wager applied to GLobal CLimate Change
david.boxall at hunterlink.net.au
Sun Jan 20 16:20:42 EST 2008
Yes, climate change is horrendously complex. That's the problem: most
people can't handle complexity. They really only pay attention to
binaries (yes/no, true/false, good/evil, etc.). The video simplifies
the problem to a couple of binaries.
It's over-simplistic and inaccurate because it leaves out so much, but
it's good enough. Within the practicalities of communicating with a
mass audience, perfection is not a realistic expectation.
I reckon the only real flaw is that he sugar-coats the worst-case
scenario. One I read had surface temperatures reaching 400 degrees
(Celsius, I think). That'd be really bad for business.
By the way,
Alastair Rankine wrote:
> My friend Julian took this video apart pretty comprehensively a few
> months ago:
> And, much as I hate to disagree with someone wearing a League of
> Awesomeness t-shirt, I think Julian is right and this guy's reasoning
> is faulty.
> On 18/01/2008, at 3:26 PM, Rick Welykochy wrote:
>> I started looking around the interesting website posted easlier
>> by Mr Scheid (regarding Yellow Pages), and found this little gem.
>> The video clip sums up quite nicely the consequences of
>> doing nothing about GCC (and being wrong) vs doing something
>> perhaps costly (and being wrong).
>> How does this apply to Link? Reasoned analysis like this is
>> easily disseminated now like never before. Public opinion can
>> be better informed and force policy changes like never before.
David Boxall | My figures are just as good
| as any other figures.
| I make them up myself, and they
| always give me innocent pleasure.
| --HL Mencken
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