[LINK] Wireless Broadband, Sinking Fast...

[Tom Koltai]

Why we NEED the NBN.
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Recent claims (FCC and others) that the World is running out of Spectrum for Wireless Broadband have many checking their exposure via wireless carrier shareholdings.

Recently in Australia, Optus released their new Pico Cells, ostensibly designed to provide coverage in low coverage areas or dead spots in consumers homes and offices.

Optus are requiring people to pay for the Pico Devices, the DSL connection backhaul and of course for the calls made on the network via a Pico Cell.

Interesting results are popping up about why Pico Cells are a must have for the future. (That's an Optus, Telstra, Vodafone "You Vill Buy a Pico Cell" not a consumer wants one…)

The UK regulator, Ofcom has commissioned and delivered a report [1] entitled 4G Capacity Gains 

Quote/ [From: http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/market-data-research/technology-research/2011/4G-Capacity-Gains/]

This project aimed to identify the best available information on the relative increase in capacity for 4G systems relative to 3G, while carefully identifying the technical and demand factors which create variability in the results. The study largely consisted of desk research, collating and synthesising data on simulations, prototype trials and early deployments into a single report, available for download below. The project team additionally conducted a number of interviews with network equipment manufacturers and mobile network operators. 

The projects findings include: 

*	Initial deployments of 4G will deliver a 1.2 times improvement in spectrum efficiency over emerging, high end 3G configurations (i.e. 2x2 HSPA+ 64QAM release 8). Comparing against a typical, high end 3G device on the market in 2011, such as a HSUPA [2]  release 6 1x1 handset, gives a gain of 3.3 times.
*	The project forecast that spectrum efficiency in deployed networks will grow by approximately 5.5 times between 2010 and 2020 
*	The project anticipates that network topology will become important to achieving capacity gains in 4G networks to a larger extent than in 3G networks.

Ofcom's technical programme enables us to keep up to date with technologies and trends, so that we can be in the best possible position to execute our regulatory duties. In many cases, we do not conduct investigations in-house but make use of external resources, such as private commercial organisations, university departments and government funded research institutions. These reports present the findings of technical work conducted on Ofcoms behalf. The opinions and conclusions stated within these reports are those of the organisations who conducted the work and may not reflect the view of Ofcom or imply any future policy work in related areas. Ofcom is not responsible for the content or accuracy of these reports. 
/Quote

According to Ofcom , Chief technology officer, Dr Stephen Unger;
"The research that we commissioned indicates that early 4G mobile networks with standard configurations will be 3.3 times (230 percent) more spectrally efficient than today's standard 3Q networks.
To put this into context, a user on an early 4G network will be able to download a video in around a third of the time it takes on a 3G network. It is anticipated that this efficiency will increase to approximately 5.5 times (450 percent) by 2020."

Although the proposed upcoming spectrum sales (800 MHz and 2.6 GHz, totalling 250 MHz of new mobile spectrum, early next year) might have had some influence on the consultants findings.

In the USA last year, 112 MHz was utilised for Data, the FCC have estimated that by 2014, this figure will have grown to 708 MHz.
(Unfortunately, much of the USA is already on the new faster LTE technologies…); so no 450 percent gain there. (In Oz we have "fast"HSDPA from all three carriers [3]) so no 450 percent gain for us either.

However, digging a little deeper we find Figure 3-8: "Different deployment types contributing to network capacity" on page 31 has an explanation on the topic of Pico cells utilisation:

Quote/
To understand how topology can assist with capacity in peak demand areas we have examined three
example scenarios representing a very high density of demand:
 A major London train station – an example of a high working population density
 A high rise office building in a major city centre (the Broadgate estate in the City of London)
– an example of a high working population density and predominantly indoor traffic
 A block of flats or student halls of residence – an example of a high concentration of high
demand users and indoor traffic

As shown by the results for each of these scenarios summarised in section 3.5.4, in all cases a move
to smaller cells is enough to mitigate the demand peak (with the train station being the most
challenging scenario). It is therefore likely that dimensioning of spectrum for capacity in 4G
networks will still be determined by dense urban scenarios and that smaller cells rather than
spectrum will be applied in these peak demand areas. However, it should be noted that our
topology assumptions in these scenarios assume that the costs of deploying smaller cells are
favourable to operators and that interference issues can be overcome. While there are positive
signs from the industry in both of these areas these are not insignificant issues and will be crucial in
determining the role of topology in boosting capacity and saving spectrum in 4G networks.
/Quote

In other words, by 2014, unless everyone in (London) highrise apartment buildings has a Pico Cell in their apartment, the network will fail to maintain it's integrity.

In the alternative, to maintain a healthy ROI [existing levels] on Cell tower infrastructure investment, the carriers will have to charge 38 cents per gigabyte.

Example. 
In Sydney CBD with 1201 cell towers for 385,000 [4] persons (9-5, Mon-Fri), at 1.5 Mb per user, the entire Sydney CBD only has capacity for 20,000 simultaneous users. 
Add in interstate and overseas tourists and visitors (an additional 25K persons) and there really is no bandwidth.

Don't believe me ? OK torrent something at 12:30 pm on Monday from the CBD...  Post results in Link.

I think we had better keep those Fibre rollout trucks rolling….
And just maybe the carriers could be told that we are onto them as regards the Pico cells… 

[1] http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/technology-research/2011/4g/4GCapacityGainsFinalReport.pdf
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Deployed_HSUPA_networks#Countries
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HSDPA_networks#Countries
[4] From City of Sydney Emergency Evacuation Plan (2006) - Numbers extrapolated according to ABS population growth figures 2006-2010.

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