[LINK] NBNCo Report comment by Butler (Link Digest, Vol 245, Issue 27)

[Phillip Musumeci]

> Link Digest, Vol 245, Issue 27, 7. Re: NBNCo Report (Noel Butler)
> Message: 7
> Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2013 11:55:45 +1000
> From: Noel Butler <noel.butler at ausics.net>
> Subject: Re: [LINK] NBNCo Report
> To: link at mailman.anu.edu.au
> Message-ID: <1366509345.4905.8.camel at tardis>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> On Sat, 2013-04-20 at 16:04 +0000, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:
>
> > > The latest NBN Co Report (April 19) may be of interest ..
> > >
> > ><
> http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2013/04/18/Photos/e2aabd80-a87f-11e2-
> >
> >81a8-eea54a862473_NBN%20Co%20Report%20to%20Parliamentary%20Committee.pdf>
> >
> >
> > "Around a third of homes in the fibre footprint have signed up to the NBN
> > in neighbourhoods where its been up and running for 12 months ... a third
>
>
> about a third, can be read as around 30%, and from what I can gather
> thats a wild over estimation, but all businesses  "talk themselves up"
>

The report itself only uses the word "third" on page 19 (the last page), in
the normal legal clarification by companies for third parties titled
"Forward Looking Statement".

I do not have AFR access but maybe the text quoted in LINK is the AFR's
interpretation of figures on page 15 where I can see week 51 take up rates
ranging between 9.5% and 37.5%, and where the week 101 take up rates are
between 15% and 56%.

An interesting question for the 2 year point might be why the lowest curve
appears flat while those above 40% are still climbing sharply. Context: the
NBN data uses a leading digit to identify the state so the high and growing
take up areas are in NSW (2KIA) and SA (5ALD) while the areas with the low
take up rates are in TAS (7) where NBNCo had to take on an existing network
design.


> > of NBN fibre users subscribe to the fastest speeds available, and they
> are
> > downloading around 50 percent more data (47 GB) than an average
> Australian
>
>
> Just goes to show, the increase is to be expected in the novelty period,
> same when 300mb a  month was average for dialup, 3 GB was average for
> cable, and I doubt the 31GB for DSL is even real, unless your a warez
> kid, because the average DSL used to be around 10-15GB, so more NBN
> fictitious inflations, but I guess all the kids screaming for NBN are
> mostly all pirates anyway.
>

A simpler interpretation is that the data in the report is correct (i.e.
simply taken from network state monitoring totals), and that the NBNCo
board and staff are just doing their job.

I have noticed some media analysts reporting a significant and growing
number of US households becoming disconnected from conventional television
watching, and explanations are not just related to the age of the "kids".

Perhaps Australian customers given choice (NBN fibre speed profiles are
enumerated on page 16) are also adjusting their lifestyle in accordance
with their ISP deal e.g. the 31% of NBN customers @100Mb/s are making use
of time shifting TV services like the ABC iView and equivalent services?
This would be a threat to cable TV services, and in Australia might trigger
retaliatory action like Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt from media companies with
significant legacy assets in print and TV media.

FWIW in my part of QLD, where the approx. 20 year old underground telephone
twisted pairs and curb side cable patching cabinets are very very very very
unreliable (and come with built in static generators), I cannot imagine
take up rate being less than 56%.


> > broadband connection each month (31 GB) also uploading an average of 14
> GB
> > per month."
> >
>
> Of course, now the kids can file share much easier and get higher
> rankings on p2p networks because of the faster uploads, but we all knew
> that would happen.
>

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