[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths

[Roger Clarke]

Ruminations on a Friday morning ...

The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV) 
infection-counts and death-counts.  And the media declares raw numbers, 
without providing any context to them.

This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was:

Italy   760
UK      559
Spain   800

To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the 
countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.

Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.

So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365

I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of 
variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there 
could be wide variability.  In particular, winter in some countries is 
likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.

It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to 
normal death-rates.  As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of 
deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:

Country Population  Death-Rate  Deaths per Day  CV Deaths Y'day  %age

Spain       46m         9.1         1146             800          69
Italy       60m        10.4         1709             760          44
UK          67m         9.4         1725             559          32


A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:

1.  Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
a.  deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
b.  deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one
c.  deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
     virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
d.  deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor

The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b.  In 
German, the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png

This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' 
late-winter-flu peak in deaths among over-65s.

It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the 
inclusion of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media.  Quoting 
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all 
test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".

2.  It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated 
death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not 
infected.  For example, populations in countries that are less prone to 
hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in 
comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.

3.  A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has 
been, throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had 
prior conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become 
life-threatening (80%).

But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the 
upper-mid Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even 
deaths among the over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.

4.  It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and 
aged-care facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many 
cases early in the epidemic.  That's because staff from Eastern European 
countries were terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and 
large numbers of local staff tested positive and were isolated at home. 
This may have resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and 
becoming casualties of the epidemic.


-- 
Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University