[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths

[Roger Clarke]

> On 2020-04-03 18:15, Roger Clarke wrote:
>> Best demo yet of 100% image and 0% substance.
>> 'Case numbers' is a meaningless metric, because it's impossible to know what each of the at least 40 data-elements means, it adds apples and oranges, and none of it tells anyone anything useful.

On 3/4/20 9:38 pm, David Lochrin wrote:
> What "40 data-elements" do you have in mind?  I presume "case-numbers" refers to the number of cases indicated by a specific diagnostic test or, at very least, a set of symptoms indicative of CV with high probability.

Country y is deemed to have <number> cases on date y.

A more careful estimate on watching it run again is:
-    43 days on the x-axis times
-    10 countries on the y-axis
=   430 data-elements (alright, maybe an 'element' is 3 micro-elements)

It agree it would be a lot better if the criterion underlying each 
<number> were "indicated by a specific diagnostic test", rather than 
'whatever the reporting agent said'.

And "a set of symptoms indicative of CV with high probability" would be 
a really good way to do it.

But unfortunately that's not what those <numbers> signify.


>> Metrics that can assist in public health decisions:
>> -   Deaths

> On the other hand, number of deaths is rather imprecise unless it's qualified by age and the existence of predisposing conditions.

I qualified that with:
 > -   Death counts normalised by population and normal death rates

But agreed:  an age-distribution and something like 'predisposing 
conditions' would be highly valuable.

I've seen mentions of 'chronic conditions' as the issue.

But something like arthritis would seem to be far less important than, 
say, emphesema.  And an acute condition in the lungs probably matters 
more than a chronic condition of the hip.  So maybe 'predisposing 
conditions' (or 'relevant conditions') rather than than 'chronic'.

I reckon that, by the time herd immunity's been achieved, we'll have 
worked out what we need to know.

Isn't it good that God / gods / mother nature / the universe has still 
got humanity baffled.


-- 
Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

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Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University