[LINK] The government's coronavirus modelling

[Stephen Loosley]

Roger writes,

> Hopefully the policy-makers know all this, are ignoring the simpletons,
> are taking into account insights drawn from multiple partial models that
> deliver bits and pieces of insights into segments of the whole problem
> (Bernard's "multiple, interconnected models fed by real-life, current
> data"), and are making progressive and adaptable judgement calls
> based on what they have available to them at the time.

Well then, hope that Australia’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer knows what he’s talking about ...

By Paul Sakkal and Angus Livingston  April 10, 2020 — 7.10pm

Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer says the country is "probably on the cusp" of forcing the coronavirus infection rate down to a point where the virus could die out, as case numbers continue to slow in Victoria.

The daily growth rate as a percentage of total cases has fallen from about 20 per cent in late March, to an average of 1.8 per cent over the past week. On Friday, a growth rate of 1 per cent was recorded.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said the overseas infection rate for COVID-19 was "disturbing", with international results showing infected people can pass it on to as many as five others. But he said Australia's successful social distancing measures were helping drive the rate closer to a further one or two infections per person.

"Ideally, where you want to be is below one. So less than one other person being infected, after a person themselves had the infection," he told reporters in Canberra.

"Once you get to that point, the virus dies out or the epidemic dies out. At the moment, we're probably on the cusp of that in Australia.

"Whether that's where we're going to be in several weeks' or months' time remains to be seen. But at the moment, we're certainly not anywhere near five."

With fewer international travellers arriving due to flight restrictions, Australia's testing regime has expanded to workers in public-facing occupations and those aged over 65 in the hope of identifying cases of local transmission not linked to overseas travellers.

Thousands of tests are being conducted every day, and 65,000 tests have been completed in total, with about 20,000 of these happening in April.

There are now 116 cases of local transmission in Victoria, six more than on Thursday. There were only 32 of these cases at the start of the month, but Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has consistently warned these cases are likely to continue to rise as more testing is completed.

Another 13 people were diagnosed with coronavirus in Victoria ahead of the government's daily update on Friday morning, taking the statewide total to 1241.

Thirteen people have now died from COVID-19 across the state. The latest victim was an 80-year-old man who died in hospital.

There are 43 people in the state's hospitals suffering from the virus, including 13 patients in intensive care, while 926 people have recovered.


Ref: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/australia-on-cusp-of-curbing-covid-19-spread-to-point-where-it-dies-out-20200410-p54iy8.html