[LINK] O/T Record-breaking government bond auction proves the world is 'bullish' on Australia

[Stephen Loosley]

Record-breaking government bond auction proves the world is 'bullish' on Australia

By David Taylor, Yesterday at 4:25pm  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/record-australian-government-bond-auction-coronavirus-covid-19/12158390


While you were getting out of bed last Wednesday morning, perhaps making a cuppa, the Australian Government was engaged in the biggest bond auction in the nation's history.

Before we go any further though, a couple of quick points.

The Australian Government's economic rescue package will, by the time the dust settles, be worth roughly $213 billion.

The Government needs to raise this money by selling bonds (Commonwealth Government Securities) to local banks and to global buyers, because taxpayer revenue won't foot the bill.

If you're a bank, and you decide to buy these bonds, you'll be entitled to the principal and interest when they mature, in four and a half years' time.

So… back to this week's bond auction.

When the Government, via the Australian Office of Finance Management (AOFM), put these bonds up for sale on Wednesday morning, global investors were falling over themselves to get their hands on them.

The world is 'bullish' on brand Australia

It's a little dry, but here are the actual results of the auction.

The offer attracted almost $26 billion of orders (managed by the AOFM's hired bankers) by the close of the order
books.

But that was too much. Australia's economic rescue package will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, but it's still being worked through.

The Government accepted a final deal size of $13 billion. That's enough for now.

Boy, was it enough …

Make no mistake, this wasn't just the biggest government bond auction in the nation's history, it was also a huge show of support, from across the globe, for the Australian Government and Australia, and what we can do, more broadly.

Buyers' details aren't disclosed by the AOFM, but the Queensland Investment Corporation, which specialises in fixed interest investments, has told the ABC it's "likely" several sovereign wealth funds (other governments) were bidding, as well as other major central banks, and of course international investment banks.

Roughly a third of the demand for the Australian Government bonds came from offshore:


Investor location   Per cent

Domestic                68.1
Offshore                 31.9

Offshore breakdown:

Asia, excluding Japan      17.6
Europe                               1.9
Japan                      0.2
North America                 5.1
UK                            7.2
Other                      0

Investor sector      Per cent

Bank - Trading                  31.5
Bank - Balance sheet       20.6
Fund manager                  25.3
Central bank                     5.4
Hedge fund            17.3
Other                      0

Source: Queensland Investment Corporation

Why is Australia in demand?

The number crunchers, working for big banks — who are not shy about being cold, objective and brutal in the way they manage money and allocate funds for investments — look at Australia's AAA credit rating and say: "Yep, Australia's good for the money."

They know they'll get their money back in three years' time, and then some.

Now, some of these buyers will trade these bonds, but for the sake of this analysis, let's assume they hold them to maturity.

You see, the Government was offering the 4.5-year bonds at a yield, or rate of return, of 0.47 percentage points. Sounds like an awful investment.

However, considering the share market looks like a roller-coaster ride at present, property's facing huge challenges, and many countries are staring down the barrel of negative interest rates … anything north of 0 per cent looks pretty attractive right now.

In four and a half years' time, you'll get your money back, and some interest.

This investment return is, to some degree, reflective of an economy that's weathered some storms leading up to this crisis.

The Australian economy wasn't in great shape leading into this, but it was doing OK.

That's because Australia's population has grown significantly over the past decade, exports of our raw materials have been in hot demand, consumers have been spending (albeit constrained by low wage growth) and the Government's spending has continued to grow too — all adding to GDP growth.

When the big investment banks did the due diligence (looking over the books) for this bond issue, this is what they would have seen: Australia's a good investment.

Good news story for Australian governments

The bond bonanza will likely provide some reassurance to the Government that it'll be able to finance the $250 billion to $300 billion deficit it's about to rack up without a hitch.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said as much this week.

"This should give Australians a sense of security and confidence," he said.

"We are being successful in raising that money on the markets. We are finding ourselves in a situation where Australia's bond issuers are being well received."

This is not a Coalition story though. This is an Australian government story.

Successive governments have presided over a once-in-a-generation mining boom, strong employment and population growth, a robust financial sector (notwithstanding the antics revealed at the banking royal commission) and mixed successes with improving productivity.

All-in-all though, Labor and the Coalition managed decades of economic growth without a recession.

Australia had a big win this week, and that's something of which we can all be proud.

--
Cheers,
Stephen