[LINK] COVID-19 is a political problem

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

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Just in case anyone was wondering, COVID-19 is a political problem, not
a medical problem, although medical science is involved.

Apart from the stupidity that is the White House and the GOP, mainly
Mitch McConnell, Australia has its own big business lobbyists.

Australians seem to be selective in their mistrust of government. People
are wary of IT but can be convinced by health advice that is endorsed
and consistent across multiple sources.

I wonder if anyone has modeled the political/economic processes.

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Inside the failed efforts to dismantle Australia's coronavirus response
https://www.smh.com.au/national/inside-the-failed-efforts-to-dismantle-australia-s-coronavirus-response-20200423-p54mjb.html

It was the first week of April, and John Roskam was frustrated. The boss
of the Institute of Public Affairs, well connected to Liberals including
federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, was aghast at the strict enforcement
of lockdown measures in Victoria and NSW, where police were driving
through Rushcutters Bay Park moving on sunbathers.

At the time, Roskam thought some fellow travellers in the Liberal Party
were prepared to speak out about this perceived injustice. Federal MP
Jason Falinski had publicly called the laws "an anathema to the country
that we live in" and "a major infringement on a free and fair society".

Roskam then spoke of the "growing unease amongst Liberal MPs and in
Liberal ranks" about the heavy-handed approach to coronavirus
restrictions, especially in the two major states.

But that unease never materialised into something more than mild,
occasional grumbling. Indeed, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's office had
already ordered Falinski and other MPs to shut up and preserve unity.
Despite the biggest infringements on individual liberty in the nation's
history, as well as divided opinion among epidemiologists about what was
necessary, mass opposition to the lockdown measures has not manifested.

The reasons for that may lie in a series of meetings and decisions made
more than a week before Roskam's comments, on a Sunday full of
fast-moving and confusing announcements. It was the day the state
premiers foreshadowed the closure of non-essential services, before
Morrison fronted the nation late at night to confirm pubs, restaurants
and cafes would shut.

"That was the crucial weekend," says Nick Cater, head of the Menzies
Research Centre, the Liberal Party's think tank. "That was when there
were people arguing they should shut everything down."

At stake that day were entire industries such as manufacturing and
construction, as well as retail outside of hospitality. There was a key
call between Wesfarmers, the owner of Bunnings, and the government about
protecting the thousands of jobs at their stores, as well as supplies
for tradies.

"The mining industry was making very strong representations to the
government," Cater says. So was the Menzies Research Centre. "We
intervened very strongly, too, internally."

In Cater's view, the national cabinet's decision to eschew a full-scale
lockdown for a gentler one, wherein people can still go shopping and see
their partners, go to work if they still have jobs and keep some
semblance of their normal lives, was critical to keeping the peace and
staving off any potential rebellion. He says it could have easily gone
the other way.

"I was very worried, as were a number of people in the government, that
this was getting out of control, that we were about to make a momentous
decision based on un-firm figures. That would have been a mistake in
hindsight."

Meanwhile, the IPA started a campaign to wind back restrictions. On
April 4, it released a video featuring policy director Gideon Rozner,
who declared the shutdowns had "decimated our society, ruined thousands
of lives and turned Australia into a police state". It was time to start
reopening churches, bars and restaurants. "Do it safely ... but do it,"
he said. "Enough is enough."

Roskam, Rozner's boss, had already been lobbying Victorian opposition
leader Michael O'Brien to start fighting Premier Daniel Andrews on the
restrictions, without much success. Roskam labelled Andrews "a threat to
democracy". Days later, the Liberal Party invited Victorians to "have
your say" on the measures.

"It's important that we follow directions from government to maintain
social distancing and to avoid activities that risk the spread of
coronavirus," the survey said. "However, some lower-risk activities that
have been banned in Victoria have not been prohibited elsewhere in
Australia. We'd like to hear your thoughts on a few of these activities."

One such activity, golf, became a symbol for some MPs, who insisted the
sport should be allowed. "This was never just about golf," Tim Smith,
the member for Kew, tweeted, saying it was about Andrews grabbing "huge
control over our lives". Sam Newman protested on the steps of the state
Parliament. But Andrews brushed it all aside.

The loudest Victorian voice agitating for change was News Corp columnist
and television presenter Andrew Bolt. Despite daily blog posts and
regular columns on the matter, there was no concession to his
complaints. And Hunt, who is not a member of the IPA, let down his
friend Roskam gently. "While we've been close friends for 30 years,
we've agreed to disagree on many of the elements in relation to the
current pandemic response," Hunt told The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age.

In NSW, 2GB broadcaster Alan Jones began by calling the coronavirus a
"health version of global warming", and the policy response "hysteria
and alarmism". But he mellowed significantly as the virus tore its way
across the globe, a change of tune which was widely noted in political
circles. "Alan goes both ways on this, as we all do," says Cater.

Jones acknowledged his shift in an email to The Sun-Herald. "I'm not a
fan of modelling," he said. "I have seen so much of it that is
disastrous. There were people who wrote in the newspapers, Peter van
Onselen and others, saying that 150,000 Australians could die. I was
vilified, not that it bothers me, for the stance I took."

Jones said he still holds to that view, but believes it is important to
rally behind Morrison at this time, just as Bill Clinton had urged him
to rally his listeners behind George W. Bush after 9/11.

"That's not to say that the Prime Minister does not tolerate differences
of opinion on certain issues," Jones said. "It is clear also that rogue
premiers have ignored overtures from the Prime Minister on many issues.
He advised against draconian lockdown laws. He argued, explicitly, as
did his health advisors, that 'schools are safe'."

The difficulty for opponents of the restrictions is that there is no
consensus along conventional political lines. Some left-libertarian
commentators are sceptical about the measures, and right-wingers who are
gung-ho for them. One Nation's Mark Latham, for instance, was among
those calling for a complete nationwide lockdown, as per New Zealand
under Jacinda Ardern.

Broadly speaking, the business community also locked in behind the
government's plan, despite its devastating impact on the economy. Their
focus has been on the recovery effort post-COVID, not undermining the
current measures or calling for them to be curtailed.

That's not good enough for people such as Roskam. "The business
community has been incredibly disappointing," he says. "A few
individuals have spoken up but I think they've been compromised by the
demonisation of big business in Australia over the last 10 years.
Business leaders are afraid to become involved in public debate. The
banks are perhaps the closest to the business devastation [but] they
don't want to compromise their relationship with the government and they
want to help shape any recovery plan."

The other intuitive and fundamental reason that opposition to the
shutdowns has not gathered steam is that they have been shown to work.
With high testing rates and very low case numbers, Australia is the envy
of the world when it comes to managing the virus.

That can be a double-edged sword; with numbers staying low, opponents of
the restrictions can argue they are excessive, as Bolt and others have
done. But that argument has failed to ignite. Polling has revealed a
high level of public support for the measures, including an Essential
poll last week that found half the country believes it is too soon to
even consider easing restrictions (though the number was lower for
younger voters).

Polling was shown to Victorian Liberal MPs as a means of getting them to
ease up on their criticisms of Andrews' approach. And Roskam laments
that MPs who privately agree with him are not willing to fight the
battle publicly because the polling is clear.

"This is where some critics have failed to take into account the fact
that you have to bring people with you," says Cater. "People in Canberra
who have got more knowledge about the virus than the average person
might see that there is room to relax. But they have to bring people
with them."

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email: brd at iimetro.com.au