[LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

[John Mann]

Roger,

I'm concerned about the effectiveness of solving the problem: finding
everyone someone may have given the virus to.

For example, it won't catch:
- infected person A touches a surface, some time later, person B touches
that surface
- an infected cook A touches a food container, that is then couriered by
person C to person B
- an infected runner A coughs, and person B running 5 m (1 second) behind
breathes in
[ I don't know how likely these, or other transmission methods are ]

It may be useful for identifying virus contacts "<1.5m for >15 mins" that
you don't know by name e.g.
  in crowded public transport
  at crowded sporting events
but these aren't allowed yet.  Is COVIDSafe actually not for now, but for
later?

Will we ever be told if COVIDSafe leads to an infected person that wouldn't
be known otherwise?

Is COVIDSafe "Virus Tracing Theatre"
 - compare to "Security Theatre"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_theater ?

Thanks,
    John

On Wed, 29 Apr 2020 at 13:05, Roger Clarke <Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au>
wrote:

> I'm sceptical.
>
> I've flung together some preliminary notes, with a view to establishing
> what's known about the effectiveness of apps like this.
>
> I'd appreciate feedback, pointers to sources, and pointers to people who
> are actively working on such questions.
>
> Thanks!  ...  Roger
>
>
>             The Effectiveness of Bluetooth Proximity Apps
>                 Preliminary Notes of 29 April 2020
>
>        http://www.anu.edu.au/people/Roger.Clarke/EC/EBPA.html
>
>                               Abstract
>
> Public health teams trace people who may have been exposed to a person
> infected with COVID-19. I'm a sceptic about the effectiveness of apps
> based on Bluetooth proximity data in supporting the efforts of those
> teams. These are preliminary and hastily-flung-together notes intended
> to frame the problem, and hence guide the search for evidence to support
> or debunk my scepticism.
>
>
> --
> Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
> T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com
>
> Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
> Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
> Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University
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