<!doctype html public "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<html><head><style type="text/css"><!--
blockquote, dl, ul, ol, li { padding-top: 0 ; padding-bottom: 0 }
--></style><title>SRES Morning Tea / Seminar</title></head><body>
<div>1. SRES Wed Morning Tea, today at 10.45am in John Banks
Court.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b>2.Seminar notice just received :</b></div>
<div>BRS SEMINAR SERIES WITH ABARE & THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL
AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS SOCIETY PRESENTS:</div>
<div><b>Friday 21 July 2006 :</b> 11.00am-12:00noon (morning tea at
10:45am)</div>
<div><i><b>Info-gap Theory and Applications in Biological Conservation
and Resource Management</b></i></div>
<div><b>Yakov Ben-Haim - Israel Institute of Technology</b></div>
<div>Information-gap Decision Theory presents a fresh approach to the
age-old problem of decision making with deficient information. An
info-gap is the disparity between what is known and what needs to be
known in order to make a well-rounded decision.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>In this seminar we consider the evaluation and selection of
policy under severe uncertainty, including:</div>
<div>· Why we cannot deduce
probabilities from our ignorance about the systems we wish to model
and control, and why we shouldn't even try.</div>
<div>· Info-gap models for
representing severe uncertainty such as unknown model-errors,
uncertain spatial distributions and unknown probabilities of rare
events.</div>
<div> · A simplified policy
selection problem demonstrating the robustness-premium for sub-optimal
policy.</div>
<div>· Info-gap robustness as a
proxy for probability of success. We often do not know the relevant
probability distributions, so we cannot calculate the probability of
policy success. However, our proxy theorems show that we are
(sometimes) able to choose a policy which maximises the probability of
success (though we don't know what that probability is).</div>
<div><b>Edmund Barton Conference Centre (in the courtyard)</b></div>
<div><b>Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry</b></div>
<div><b>Edmund Barton Building</b></div>
<div><b>Kings Avenue, Canberra</b></div>
<div>Bookings not required.</div>
<div>Parking can be a problem, we suggest taking public transport or a
taxi.</div>
<div>For further details, please call the BRS Seminar Coordinator on
6272 4011. For further information on BRS Seminars or to obtain
papers/presentations supplied by previous seminar presenters, please
visit our website at: <a
href="http://www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars">www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars</a
></div>
</body>
</html>