[TimorLesteStudies] Fwd: Tim Anderson: elections in Timor Leste

Fri Apr 27 12:55:24 EST 2007

27.5% in the first round is far from what Fretilin has
expected. If Fretilin wants to win 40% as predicted by
Tim Aderson it has to work hard. 

--- Angie Bexley <Angie.Bexley at anu.edu.au> wrote:

> TIMOR LESTE STUDIES ASSOCIATION MAILING LIST
> >
> >
> > Subject: Still Struggling for Independence:
> elections in Timor Leste
> >
> > By Tim Anderson
> >
> > 'Independence is not an end, it is the beginning
> of
> > self rule' - Kofi
> > Anan, May 2002
> >
> > Australian representations of elections in Timor
> Leste
> > have reflected the wishful thinking of an elite.
> Media
> > coverage of the Presidential elections focused
> almost
> > exclusively on the pro-Australian candidate, Jose
> > Ramos Horta, and commentaries over a future
> government
> > keenly search for a Xanana-led coalition that
> might
> > upset the currently Fretilin dominated parliament.
> >
> > The fact that Francisco ('Lu Olo') Guterres, the
> man
> > who won the first
> > Presidential round, was not seriously profiled by
> any
> > Australian media
> > outlet should give us pause to reflect on the
> quality
> > of information
> > provided. To win the first round while opposed by
> the
> > incumbent President, the incumbent Prime Minster,
> the
> > hierarchy of the Catholic Church and the
> Australian
> > elite is quite an achievement. It shows that
> Fretilin
> > as a force for independence still resonates
> strongly
> > with the East Timorese people.
> >
> > There was a great deal of media speculation over
> > possible election fraud, pointing a finger at
> > Fretilin. This was remarkable given the high level
> of
> > international observers and the open anti-Fretilin
> > bias of the electoral authority. Electoral chief
> and
> > Catholic Church representative Martinho Gusmao
> > publicly endorsed opposition leader Fernando
> Araujo
> > before the election, then made a false claim that
> > votes in pro-Fretilin Baucau were massively
> > over-subscribed. European Union observers
> contradicted
> > him.
> >
> >
> >
> > What of Lu Olo? He was a guerilla leader for the
> > entire resistance period, Speaker of Parliament
> for
> > over five years and remains a loyal member of
> > Fretilin. Mari Alkatiri, the former Prime Minister
> > reviled by the Australian media, is still General
> > Secretary of the party. So while the
> > coup attempt and foreign intervention have
> undoubtedly
> > shaken confidence in Fretilin, the first round has
> > demonstrated that no other party in Timor Leste
> has
> > anything close to its support.
> >
> > Recall that an alliance of sorts was formed at the
> > time of the first
> > Presidential election of April 2002, where
> Fretilin
> > agreed to support
> > Xanana Gusmao, provided that he ran as an
> independent.
> > Xanana's only opposition was Francisco Xavier do
> > Amaral from the ASDT (Timorese Social Democratic
> > Association). Fretilin had already gained an
> outright
> > majority in the August 2001 elections for a
> > constituent assembly, which went on to become the
> > nation's first parliament.
> >
> > Prior to the 2006 crisis, a major political
> > achievement was the effective
> > combination of the strategic vision of Alkatiri's
> > Fretilin, the charisma
> > of Xanana and the diplomacy of Ramos Horta.
> Despite a
> > tiny budget
> > (increasing in 2007, with oil revenue) they began
> the
> > institutions of a
> > modern state, expanded education, rehabilitated
> their
> > rice fields,
> > developed a major health program and clawed back
> > several billion dollars in oil and gas revenue
> from
> > the Howard Government.
> >
> > Alkatiri attracted most Australian hostility,
> > particularly over the
> > protracted oil and gas talks. Ramos Horta was the
> weak
> > link. I have
> > detailed elsewhere (Timor Leste: the Second
> Australian
> > Intervention) how he attempted three compromises,
> all
> > of which would have pleased Howard and Downer but
> > resulted in less revenue for his country. Little
> > wonder he emerged as the Australian favorite.
> >
> > Xanana maintained an aloofness from party
> politics, a
> > stance which aided his major political project of
> > reconciliation. He forgave the Indonesian generals
> > (despite a lack of repentance on their side) and
> > attempted to reintegrate former militia members
> into
> > local communities.
> >
> > However this aloofness evaporated in the crisis,
> as
> > Xanana indirectly
> > supported coup leader Alfredo Reinado and bitterly
> > attacked Fretilin. As President he demanded the
> > resignation of Mari Alkatiri, using a video copy
> of a
> > notorious ABC program which had relied on the word
> of
> > one of Reinado's allies to accuse Alkatiri of
> arming a
> > 'hit squad' to kill his political opponents, and
> of
> > having already murdered a number of them. A UN
> > investigation into the crisis ('Report of the
> United
> > Nations Independent Special Commission of Inquiry
> for
> > Timor-Leste') later discredited this story.
> >
> > The Australian media, however, clings to the 'hit
> > squad' theory, gaining
> > some comfort from the conviction of Alkatiri ally
> and
> > former Interior
> > Minister Rogerio Lobato for the offence of
> > distributing police weapons to civilians. Lobato,
> > appealing his conviction, maintains these acts
> were
> > justified during a coup attempt, when the police
> force
> > had disintegrated.
> >
> > With coup leader Reinado still at large, but
> > apparently no longer considered a political asset
> or a
> > threat by either Xanana or the Australians, the
> > politics of Timor Leste seem to have returned to a
> > somewhat more 'normal' footing. But it is a
> political
> > process badly
> > damaged by violence, dislocation and mistrust.
> >
> > Ramos Horta may still win the Presidency from Lu
> Olo
> > in the second round. However this depends more on
> > voter perceptions than on the small opposition
> > parties' ability to deliver 'blocs' of votes, as
> in a
> > more
> > class-based party system. Ramos Horta has
> > international recognition but Lu Olo is the
> > 'grassroots' candidate. Many of the epithets
> thrown at
> > Mari Alkatiri - that he was arrogant and an exile
> > during the struggle - now apply to Ramos Horta,
> not Lu
> > Olo. In any case, a Ramos Horta Presidency would
> not
> > be a major barrier to a Fretilin-led Government.
> East
> > Timorese are used to having a figurehead,
> non-Fretilin
> > President, and a Fretilin Government.
> >
> > Xanana Gusmao's descent from the Presidency to
> party
> 
=== message truncated ===

Francisco da Costa Guterres
Fellow in Law and Politics
Timor Institute of Development Studies (TIDS)/ETSG
Dili, East Timor
Ph. +670 723 9876;
Dept. of International Business and Asian Studies,
Griffith Business School, 
Griffith University, 
QLD 4111
Australia.

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