[LINK] Yearly Predictions

Glen Turner glen.turner at aarnet.edu.au
Thu Dec 7 10:38:11 AEDT 2006

steve jenkin wrote:

> So what Yearly Predictions are people prepared to make?
> In what areas?

Readying myself for eternal embarrassment in years to come
(but hoping to set an example for others to do the same)...

My guess is that it will be the year when copyright enters
the mainstream. The new Copyright Act will lead to record
and movie co.s aggressively pursuing infringers, one of
whom will be blameless.  People will have ordinary happenings,
lose their music collection due to DRM, and loudly ask why.
Philip Ruddock is A-G, so he'll have the complainers sent
to a detention center. [Well, maybe not the last prediction,
let's just say he'll quote the new Biblical text, the AUSFTA]

BluRay and HD-DVD will both suck.  Consumers will decide DVD
is good enough.

Linux on the desktop will finally be as good as Windows, but
people still won't use it. Linux will continue to keep the
hardware manufacturers honest.

The point of Digital TV will be questioned as people find
they're up for $$$ for set top boxes and, especially, external
antennas. Without multi-channelling what's the benefit for

We'll finally see effective integration of encryption and
e-mail clients, something the government has opposed for
years (classifying this software under weapons control treaties,
etc). That will be driven by a need to solve the spam and
phishing problem. Otherwise instant messaging will replace e-mail.
Microsoft will see this as an opportunity to establish a MS
walled garden for e-mail.

There will be a scandal over the behaviour of a public official
which is recorded and posted to YouTube. This will be the new way
for people to anonymously bring shameful matters to the attention
of the authorities and the public.

Software patents will be seen as anti-competitive. An arrangement
will be done with the drug companies so that software patents can
exit the patent system.

The contribution of computers and networks to electricity demand
will be strongly questioned.  Why do I need to run a computer
to charge my iPod?

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