[LINK] Problems with Tsunami warning system
Tom Worthington
Tom.Worthington at tomw.net.au
Wed Jul 19 15:28:47 AEST 2006
My DIY tsunami warning system failed to work this week.
UNESCO's interim system sends out alerts by email. These were being
forwarded to my phone by SMS. However, this created too many false
alarms. The Indian Ocean system forwards warnings from the Pacific
and Alaskan systems, as well as its own from Japan and test messages.
So I set my system to only forward what I thought should be should be
genuine messages, using the Sieve Mail Filtering Language
<http://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc3028.txt>:
allof( header :contains "from"
"tsunamiwarning-ioc-en at lists.unesco.org", not header :contains
"subject" "WCATWC", body :contains ["TSUNAMI WARNING BULLETIN",
"WATCH BULLETIN"])
This failed to activate with the genuine message (appended), as it
said "TSUNAMI BULLETIN" and "WARNING", but not "TSUNAMI WARNING
BULLETIN" or "WATCH BULLETIN". It shows the danger of relying on such
automation.
One curious point is that the bulletin from the Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center was issued at 8:36 (the time on the message header is
8:37:49) but that from the interim Indian ocean system at the Japan
Meteorological Agency was not until 8:46 UTC (the header says
8:47:28), ten minutes later.
The message headers indicate the first message took .43 seconds and
the second .17 seconds to get from UNESCO to my mail system. But they
were not sent by the UNESCO system until 8:50:40 and 8:54:04
respectively. It is not clear if the delays of three and seven
minutes are in the message system, or human delay in sending the messages.
Also you will note that the formatting of the messages from the two
centers is slightly different. While this doesn't matter to the
English reader, it could cause difficulty for someone who's first
language is not English and stop an automated system interpreting the
messages correctly. I raised this with one of the centers a few days
ago. It would seem reasonable that they would use a carefully
standardized syntax and vocabulary. But I have not been able to find
a document which defines the exact format of the messages.
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Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 08:37:49 GMT
To: ioauxilliary at ptwc.noaa.gov
From: tsunamiwarning-ioc-en at lists.unesco.org
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Subject: [Tsunami Warning - IOC] Local Tsunami Watch Bulletin
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TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0836Z 17 JUL 2006
THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.
... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
AUSTRALIA / INDONESIA
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN
ADVISORY ONLY.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0819Z 17 JUL 2006
COORDINATES - 9.3 SOUTH 107.3 EAST
LOCATION - SOUTH OF JAWA INDONESIA
MAGNITUDE - 7.2
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA
LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.
DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT
POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY CONFIRM NOR EVALUATE THE
STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES
MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME
BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
AUSTRALIA CHRISTMAS IS 10.4S 105.4E 0836Z 17 JUL
INDONESIA CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0900Z 17 JUL
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT.
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Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 17:47:28 +0900 (JST)
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Subject: [Tsunami Warning - IOC] TSUNAMI WATCH INFORMATION FOR INDIAN
OCEAN FROM JMA TOKYO
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TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA)
ISSUED AT 0846 17 JUL 2006 (UTC)
... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
1.EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION
ORIGIN TIME : 0819 17 JUL 2006 (UTC)
COORDINATES : 9.3 SOUTH 107.3 EAST
LOCATION : SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
MAGNITUDE : 7.2
2.EVALUATION
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI
IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
3.ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME
ONE HOUR OR LESS
INDONESIA:
INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF SUMATRA
INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF JAWA
SOUTH COASTS OF LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS
AUSTRALIA:
COCOS ISLANDS
*TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME IS ESTIMATED ONLY FROM EARTHQUAKE DATA
AND INDICATES THE TIME LAPSE BETWEEN ORIGIN TIME AND TSUNAMI
ARRIVAL TIME.
*THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI
TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE
REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS.
*****************************************************************
TSUNAMI WATCH INFORMATION (TWI) IS PROVIDED TO THE COUNTRIES OF
THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION FROM JMA IN COOPERATION WITH PTWC OF US
ON AN INTERIM BASIS PRIOR TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE TSUNAMI
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN THE REGION. TWI SHOULD BE REGARDED AS A
REFERENCE MATERIAL FOR THE DISASTER PREVENTION AUTHORITIES OF THE
RECIPIENT COUNTRIES TO ISSUE TSUNAMI WARNINGS ON THEIR OWN
INITIATIVE AND RESPONSIBILITY.
*****************************************************************
---
Tom Worthington FACS HLM tom.worthington at tomw.net.au Ph: 0419 496150
Director, Tomw Communications Pty Ltd ABN: 17 088 714 309
PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617 http://www.tomw.net.au/
Director, ACS Communications Tech Board http://www.acs.org.au/ctb/
Visiting Fellow, ANU Blog: http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/atom.xml
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