[LINK] Problems with Tsunami warning system
rchirgwin at ozemail.com.au
rchirgwin at ozemail.com.au
Thu Jul 20 13:14:14 AEST 2006
Mulling and using the envelope...
Timeline:
Quake: 8.19
Analysis Complete: sometime before 8.36 (first alert e-mail issued)
That's not instant, but it's pretty quick. It takes a finite time for the
seismic wave to reach seismographs - quick googling yield 4km/sec as
reasonable
velocity. So the impact point was 45 seconds away as the quake travels.
The seismographs (you need more than one to identify the epicentre don't you?)
are therefore probably on the plus side of one minute away from the origin of
the quake.
Once data is gathered it has to be analysed and someone has to judge whether a
tsunami is likely, its likely direction, time of landing, and so on. So they
need at least time to get the data into a simulation and run the simulation.
Then the notification goes out and (as seems to have happened to you,
Tom) runs
into distribution delays...
As others noted, none of the communication systems involved in this are
"guaranteed instant". It's just that e-mail and SMS is usually quick enough
that users don't much notice or think about latency.
It's quite irresponsible for the newshounds to be running around stirring up
ignorance with a "why didn't the government send an SMS?" line...
RC
> One curious point is that the bulletin from the Pacific Tsunami
> Warning Center was issued at 8:36 (the time on the message header is
> 8:37:49) but that from the interim Indian ocean system at the Japan
> Meteorological Agency was not until 8:46 UTC (the header says
> 8:47:28), ten minutes later.
>
> The message headers indicate the first message took .43 seconds and
> the second .17 seconds to get from UNESCO to my mail system. But they
> were not sent by the UNESCO system until 8:50:40 and 8:54:04
> respectively. It is not clear if the delays of three and seven
> minutes are in the message system, or human delay in sending the
> messages.
>
> Also you will note that the formatting of the messages from the two
> centers is slightly different. While this doesn't matter to the
> English reader, it could cause difficulty for someone who's first
> language is not English and stop an automated system interpreting the
> messages correctly. I raised this with one of the centers a few days
> ago. It would seem reasonable that they would use a carefully
> standardized syntax and vocabulary. But I have not been able to find
> a document which defines the exact format of the messages.
>
> ---
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> Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 08:37:49 GMT
> To: ioauxilliary at ptwc.noaa.gov
> From: tsunamiwarning-ioc-en at lists.unesco.org
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> Subject: [Tsunami Warning - IOC] Local Tsunami Watch Bulletin
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>
> TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
> PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
> ISSUED AT 0836Z 17 JUL 2006
>
> THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.
>
> ... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
>
> A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
>
> AUSTRALIA / INDONESIA
>
> FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN
> ADVISORY ONLY.
>
> AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
>
> ORIGIN TIME - 0819Z 17 JUL 2006
> COORDINATES - 9.3 SOUTH 107.3 EAST
> LOCATION - SOUTH OF JAWA INDONESIA
> MAGNITUDE - 7.2
>
> EVALUATION
>
> A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
> HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
>
> HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
> COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
> KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE
> REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
> AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA
> LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.
>
> DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT
> POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY CONFIRM NOR EVALUATE THE
> STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.
>
> ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES
> MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME
> BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
>
> LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
> -------------------------------- ------------ ------------
> AUSTRALIA CHRISTMAS IS 10.4S 105.4E 0836Z 17 JUL
> INDONESIA CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0900Z 17 JUL
>
> THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
> WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
> BECOMES AVAILABLE.
>
> THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
> FOR THIS EVENT.
> ---
>
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> Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 17:47:28 +0900 (JST)
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> Subject: [Tsunami Warning - IOC] TSUNAMI WATCH INFORMATION FOR INDIAN
> OCEAN FROM JMA TOKYO
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>
> TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
> ISSUED BY THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA)
> ISSUED AT 0846 17 JUL 2006 (UTC)
>
> ... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
>
> 1.EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION
> ORIGIN TIME : 0819 17 JUL 2006 (UTC)
> COORDINATES : 9.3 SOUTH 107.3 EAST
> LOCATION : SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA
> MAGNITUDE : 7.2
>
> 2.EVALUATION
> THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI
> IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
>
> 3.ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME
> ONE HOUR OR LESS
> INDONESIA:
> INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF SUMATRA
> INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF JAWA
> SOUTH COASTS OF LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS
> AUSTRALIA:
> COCOS ISLANDS
>
> *TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME IS ESTIMATED ONLY FROM EARTHQUAKE DATA
> AND INDICATES THE TIME LAPSE BETWEEN ORIGIN TIME AND TSUNAMI
> ARRIVAL TIME.
>
> *THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES
> ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI
> TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE
> REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS.
>
> *****************************************************************
> TSUNAMI WATCH INFORMATION (TWI) IS PROVIDED TO THE COUNTRIES OF
> THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION FROM JMA IN COOPERATION WITH PTWC OF US
> ON AN INTERIM BASIS PRIOR TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE TSUNAMI
> EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN THE REGION. TWI SHOULD BE REGARDED AS A
> REFERENCE MATERIAL FOR THE DISASTER PREVENTION AUTHORITIES OF THE
> RECIPIENT COUNTRIES TO ISSUE TSUNAMI WARNINGS ON THEIR OWN
> INITIATIVE AND RESPONSIBILITY.
> *****************************************************************
> ---
>
>
> Tom Worthington FACS HLM tom.worthington at tomw.net.au Ph: 0419 496150
> Director, Tomw Communications Pty Ltd ABN: 17 088 714 309
> PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617 http://www.tomw.net.au/
> Director, ACS Communications Tech Board http://www.acs.org.au/ctb/
> Visiting Fellow, ANU Blog: http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/atom.xml
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