[LINK] Piracy stats don't add up

[Kim Holburn]

Peer review anyone?

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,20713160%5E15306%5E% 
5Enbv%5E,00.html

> Piracy stats don't add up
> Simon Hayes
> NOVEMBER 07, 2006
> PIRACY statistics are labelled "self-serving hyperbole" in a draft  
> government report.
>
> Jim McNamara-200
> 'They're entitled to say they're not convinced, but not necessarily  
> entitled to say it's unverified,' Jim Macnamara, BSAA chairman
> A confidential briefing for the Attorney-General's Department,  
> prepared by the Australian Institute of Criminology, lashes the  
> music and software sectors.
>
> The draft of the institute's intellectual property crime report,  
> sighted by The Australian shows that copyright owners "failed to  
> explain" how they reached financial loss statistics used in  
> lobbying activities and court cases.
>
> Figures for 2005 from the global Business Software Association  
> showing $361 million a year of lost sales in Australia are  
> "unverified and epistemologically unreliable", the report says.
>
> BSAA chairman Jim Macnamara said the figure was an extrapolation,  
> but other studies had supported it.
>
> "They're entitled to say they're not convinced, but not necessarily  
> entitled to say it's unverified," he said.
>
> The study, which says some of the statistics used by copyright  
> owners are "absurd", will be redrafted after senior researchers  
> disagreed with its conclusions.
>
> Painting a picture of an industry seething with competitive  
> jealousies, the report describes how "well-connected Canberra-based  
> lobbyists" fight for government attention and police time on piracy.
>
> Researcher Alex Malik, working for the AIC under a commission from  
> the Attorney-General's Department and IP Australia, was  
> particularly critical of the use of statistics in court.
>
> "Of greatest concern is the potentially unqualified use of these  
> statistics in courts of law," the draft reads.
>
> Mr Malik declined to speak to The Australian, citing a  
> confidentiality agreement.
>
> Institute principal criminologist Russell Smith said the report was  
> an early draft that was being edited by the agency.
>
> "We wouldn't use language like that because it's not accurate, it's  
> hyperbolic and overblown," he said.
>
> "It was a very early draft written by a consultant, and we would  
> want a chance to revise it.
>
> "We have an extensive quality control system in the institute, so  
> that drafts are read by most senior staff.
>
> "The report hasn't been finalised. It's still being edited and  
> revised."
>
> Copyright owners have lobbied for several years to have a study  
> done, hoping their figures will result in more law enforcement  
> action on piracy.
>
> The report, intended as a confidential government briefing, casts  
> doubt on the methodology of some industry piracy studies.
>
> It says the manager of the recording industry's anti-piracy arm,  
> Music Industry Piracy Investigations, did not know how piracy  
> estimates were calculated, as that work was done by the  
> International Federation of Phonographic Industries in London.
>
> Copyright owners often use street-value estimates to calculate  
> losses, but this assumes that every person who bought pirated goods  
> would otherwise have paid for a legitimate item, the report notes.
>
> MIPI manager Sabiene Heindl defended the figures, which she said  
> were based on local survey, research and seizure statistics, but  
> compiled in Britain.
>
> "The reason I wasn't personally aware of how they are prepared is  
> because they are compiled by the IFPI," she said.
>
> "They have a group that has been doing this for some time."
>
> Ms Heindl said the report was not intended to be made public.
>
> "We haven't had an opportunity to see the report," she said.
>
> "My understanding is it wasn't to be a public document and that any  
> submissions were to be considered confidential."
>
> The most recent locally commissioned study was in the late 1990s,  
> Mr Macnamara said.
>
> Many copyright holders claimed links between piracy and organised  
> crime, but AIC researcher had found nothing to support that view.
>
> "Either there is no evidence of any links between piracy and  
> organised crime or it is simply beyond the capacity of rights  
> holders to identify these links," he wrote, adding that he was  
> concerned about the way piracy figures were being used.
>
> "It is inappropriate for courts and policy makers to accept at face  
> value currently unsubstantiated statistics.
>
> "Either these statistics must be withdrawn or the purveyors of  
> these statistics must supply valid and transparent substantiation."
>
> Some industry groups were reluctant to work with researchers,  
> because of concern about data leaking to competitors.
>
> Much of that has to do with a fight over access to resources.
>
> "There is a perception among some rights holders that they are in  
> competition with each other over limited federal government  
> resources," the report says.
>
> "They fear that if they reveal the nature of their relationships  
> with government, such as the placement of well-connected Canberra  
> lobbyists, they will jepordise their advantage."

--
Kim Holburn
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