[LINK] the weather makers

[Alan L Tyree]

On Sun, 08 Apr 2007 18:40:14 +1000
Stewart Fist <stewart_fist at optusnet.com.au> wrote:

> Danny says:
> > 
> > As for your list of statements, you you don't give sources for any
> > of them, so it's entirely unclear how much "claim to authority" any
> > of them have: are they from recent publications in the scientific
> > literature, or random passages pulled from out of date secondary
> > sources?
> 
> 
> I haven't given the sources because I collected these over twenty
> years of work, trying to come to grips with the general history of
> Europe and the influence climate had on politics and culture.
> 
> I didn't, at the time, think that this stuff would be needed to prove
> that I don't make this stuff up.
> 
> My sources were at least as good, or as bad, as those of anyone else
> in this forum who looks up and promotes a Web blog as an authority,
> or takes some claims from a museum administrator's popular book.
> 
> Most of them came from books by historians who weren't selling a
> climate-change message.

And you can find a lot of the sources in that much maligned novel by
Michael Crighton "State of Fear". Terrible novel, perhaps terrible
science, but lots and lots of sources.

I would like to pick up on Stewart's point of computer modelling. I
don't know the state of "verification" of these models. Most
predictions are for 50 or more years into the future. I would be far
more convinced if the models could be verified in one simple way: plug
in the data from 1900. Does the model predict the 1940-1970 cooling?
Does it predict the remainder of the century?

We are talking **major** disruption to follow the "Precautionary
Principle". Most of the adverse disruption will be felt by poorer
nations and people (because it always is). We owe it to those people to
be sure of what it happening.

And, as Stewart said, the predictions about sea levels and all the rest
are removed once again from the basic facts.

When was the last time that you heard anything good about global
warming? Longer growing seasons? Higher CO2 levels promoting faster
plant growth?



> 
> 
> -- 
> Stewart Fist, writer, journalist, film-maker
> 70 Middle Harbour Road, LINDFIELD, 2070, NSW, Australia
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> 
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-- 
Alan L Tyree                    http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
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