[LINK] the weather makers

[Kim Holburn]

On 2007/Apr/08, at 11:52 PM, Alan L Tyree wrote:
> I would like to pick up on Stewart's point of computer modelling. I
> don't know the state of "verification" of these models. Most
> predictions are for 50 or more years into the future. I would be far
> more convinced if the models could be verified in one simple way: plug
> in the data from 1900. Does the model predict the 1940-1970 cooling?
> Does it predict the remainder of the century?

I watched an Attenborough show which showed the Hadley Centre which  
Flannery also talks about.  I don't think you can talk about it like  
that.  It's nowhere as accurate as that.  They can get a very, very  
rough model of the last century or two.  They were showing the  
results of modelling to demonstrate that unless they factor in man- 
made CO2 their models are wildly out from 1970 on.

> We are talking **major** disruption to follow the "Precautionary
> Principle". Most of the adverse disruption will be felt by poorer
> nations and people (because it always is). We owe it to those  
> people to
> be sure of what it happening.
>
> And, as Stewart said, the predictions about sea levels and all the  
> rest
> are removed once again from the basic facts.
>
> When was the last time that you heard anything good about global
> warming? Longer growing seasons? Higher CO2 levels promoting faster
> plant growth?

Lots.  A small increase in warming increases some kinds of  
agricultural outputs in some countries.  More than than about 2  
degrees and the situation gets worse and it's different for each  
country and often for different parts of each country.

If it were simply a small change in temperature it might all be fine  
but an increase in temperature combined with a reduced amount of rain  
like they have had in the sahel region of Africa it is not so good  
for agriculture, or people.

--
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
Ph: +39 06 855 4294  M: +39 3494957443
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Democracy imposed from without is the severest form of tyranny.
                           -- Lloyd Biggle, Jr. Analog, Apr 1961