[LINK] the weather makers
Alan L Tyree
alan at austlii.edu.au
Tue Apr 10 07:04:10 AEST 2007
On Mon, 9 Apr 2007 17:59:27 +1000
Danny Yee <danny at anatomy.usyd.edu.au> wrote:
> Alan L Tyree wrote:
> > But a form of "validation" certainly requires "predicting" the past
> > to give some confidence in the models. My confidence in the models
> > would be greatly increased if they were shown to "predict" the 20th
> > century. Doesn't need to be entirely accurate, of course, but it
> > should at least be able to identify the high points.
>
> The models we have _do_ accurately fit many of the historical data
> we have. Heck, some of them match historical data back a long way
> before the 20th century (Milankovitch cycles and suchlike).
>
> Sure, we'd like to have more, and more accurate, historical data --
> and there are people working on obtaining this, from ice cores and
> tree rings and all kinds of other sources. And we'd like to have
> better models -- and there are people working on this too,
> continuously refining models to reflect better understanding of
> mechanisms, better data, faster computers, and so forth.
>
> Making blanket assertions that climate models aren't any good is
> just wrongheaded. If you have concrete suggestions as to ways
> they could be improved, go for it. If you are pointing out that
> they have uncertainties and errors, well that's how science works.
> If you just want to spread vague doubts and general FUD, then you're
> doing no one any service.
Danny, I didn't do that. I made no assertions at all about the quality
of the models. I asked about their quality.
You assure me that the models *do* fit
historical data. You were the one the other day ragging at Stewart
about sources. All I asked was *if* the models do what you say they do.
If so, I am surprised that the results do not receive more publicity.
I can't see how it does your cause, or any cause, any good to accuse me
of spreading vague doubts and, most insultingly, FUD.
>
> There is no conspiracy on the part of thousands of climate scientists
> to not look for or to ignore fundamental data and mechanisms.
>
> Danny.
>
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Alan L Tyree http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
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