[LINK] Exponential growth [was Microsoft is dead ... were it so!]

[Eleanor Lister]

Alan L Tyree wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 11:17:48 +1000
> Antony Barry <tony at tony-barry.emu.id.au> wrote:
>
>   
>> On 11/04/2007, at 8:05 AM, Alan L Tyree wrote:
>>
>> Quoting Ehlich
>>
>>     
>>> "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s
>>> hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any
>>> crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can  
>>> prevent
>>> a substantial increase in the world death rate..."
>>>       
>> The green revolution came along with crops which could resist pests,  
>> take advantage of fertilisers and irrigation and were suited to big  
>> monocultures.
>>     
>
> Precisely. When faced with a very difficult problem, humans used their
> strongest resource: intelligence, science, technology, 'engineering' in
> the very broadest sense. They prevented what Erlich said could not be
> prevented.
>
>
>   

well no, "delayed" perhaps, but hardly prevented.

this is the classic demand for land and resources increasing at least
geometrically, and perhaps exponentially, but the resources are being
harvested arithmetically.

time to disaster = f(time, population, land, water) + K

fiddling with K looks good, such as the green revolution, but this only
delays matters, and may result in an even larger disaster

we need to redesign our economies so that they do not rely on the steady
discovery of critical resources to balance the economic growth, and this
can be done, but it requires restraint of population growth and more
efficient use of resources.

China is sticking to the 1 child per family, and India has promoted the
use of condoms, and these 2 nations are critical with their populations.

meanwhile, back at the ranch we are still raising grain-fed beef, which
is very inefficient energy use.

the club of rome discussed these matters and built some quite decent
models, but were derogated by the politicians, then with the green
revolution, written off ... but their models still work, just that the
Konstants have been adjusted.

it's much like the enthusiastic "green wash" that our major parties
indulge in ... and means nothing, they have no idea, and are looking for
bandaids rather than reexamining the basic structures of society.

bandaids won't do it, clean coal does not exist, and nuclear has social
and environmental costs that one cannot, or at least should not, ignore.

... not to overlook the fact that more and more arable land is being
turned into housing estates, which threatens to make our food production
both inadequate and expensive.

eat the rich!
    EL
>   
>> We are losing access to water and thence irrigation because of
>> global warming.
>>
>> Industrial agriculture won't work when oil and gas run out as we
>> will lose fuel, fertiliser and pesticides.
>>
>> Insects are evolving which by passour defenses. See this weeks "New  
>> Scientist" where Nobel Laureate, Norman Borlaug and the inventor of  
>> the Green Revolution is quoted saying "this thing has immense  
>> potential for social and human destruction"[1]. Wheat blight is back.
>>
>> In almost all areas of the world soil is being lost and degraded.
>>
>> We are going to lose the green revolution. We are already pushing at  
>> the limits of  photosynthetic productivity [2] and the other inputs  
>> are being eroded.
>>
>> _._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._.
>>
>>
>> 1. Debora Mackenzie, "Billions At Risk From Wheat Super-Blight," New  
>> Scientist No.2598 (2007): p.6-7.
>>
>> 2. Bruce Bugbee, Oscar Monje, "The Limits of Crop Productivity"  
>> BioScience, Vol. 42, No. 7, Crop Productivity for Earth and Space  
>> (Jul. - Aug., 1992), pp. 494-502 doi:10.2307/1311879
>>
>> Tony
>>
>> phone : 02 6241 7659 | mailto:me at Tony-Barry.emu.id.au
>> mobile: 04 1242 0397 | mailto:tony.barry at alianet.alia.org.au
>> http://tony-barry.emu.id.au
>>
>>
>>
>>     
>
>
>   


-- 
------------
Eleanor Ashley Lister
South Sydney Greens
http://ssg.nsw.greens.org.au
webmistress at ssg.nsw.greens.org.au