[LINK] Exponential growth [was Microsoft is dead ... were it so!]

Alan L Tyree alan at austlii.edu.au
Fri Apr 13 11:19:47 AEST 2007


On Fri, 13 Apr 2007 10:47:56 +1000
Richard Chirgwin <rchirgwin at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

> I find it odd that so many people are offended even by the idea of 
> simple frugality in the matter of resources.
> 
> What do we lose by turning off unnecessary lamps?
> Why is it considered somehow evil to seek less packaging rather than
> more? Why must I look to grain-fed rather than paddock beef?
> (personally I don't but you know ...)
> 
> If I look around the world, I suspect a degree of right-wing dogs' 
> bollocks associated with the wonders of technological farming saving
> the starving poor. I suspect a "neutral" analysis - ie, one which
> starts with a null hypothesis - might also find that the poor of
> country X stop starving when:
> 
> - the country is rich enough to buy food and pay for transport, and/or
> - there's enough freedom from corruption that the poor can actually
> get their hands on the food without 10,000% markups sticking to the
> fingers of the regime.
> 
> Really: does Monsanto bestow its riches on some dirt-poor third world 
> country in complete collapse? Or does it justify the research on the 
> basis of the starving poor, and then sell the stuff to the 
> already-rich?  And, as Tony notes, we have also been sold the B.S.
> that the benefits came for free; when in fact there's resistance to 
> pesticides, topsoil loss and so on coming back to bite us later.
> 
> Only a knave or a sucker ignores technical debt; yet in saying "Free 
> enterprise saved the planet, all doomsayers are wrong!" that's
> exactly what happens. The technical debt - the hassle of the next
> generation - is treated as a simple externality, and for what? So
> that ¿2%49**!!!! liars can run round saying All Greens are Commies to
> anyone who wants a simple light switched turned off.

Kicked the beJesus out of that straw man! I don't think the green
revolution had much to do with "free enterprise".

> 
> There. Now I feel better...

So do I.

> 
> RC
> 
> Antony Barry wrote:
> >
> > On 11/04/2007, at 8:05 AM, Alan L Tyree wrote:
> >
> > Quoting Ehlich
> >
> >> "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s
> >> hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any
> >> crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can
> >> prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..."
> >
> >
> > The green revolution came along with crops which could resist
> > pests, take advantage of fertilisers and irrigation and were suited
> > to big monocultures.
> >
> > We are losing access to water and thence irrigation because of
> > global warming.
> >
> > Industrial agriculture won't work when oil and gas run out as we
> > will lose fuel, fertiliser and pesticides.
> >
> > Insects are evolving which by passour defenses. See this weeks "New 
> > Scientist" where Nobel Laureate, Norman Borlaug and the inventor of 
> > the Green Revolution is quoted saying "this thing has immense 
> > potential for social and human destruction"[1]. Wheat blight is
> > back.
> >
> > In almost all areas of the world soil is being lost and degraded.
> >
> > We are going to lose the green revolution. We are already pushing
> > at the limits of  photosynthetic productivity [2] and the other
> > inputs are being eroded.
> >
> > _._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._.
> >
> >
> > 1. Debora Mackenzie, "Billions At Risk From Wheat Super-Blight,"
> > New Scientist No.2598 (2007): p.6-7.
> >
> > 2. Bruce Bugbee, Oscar Monje, "The Limits of Crop Productivity" 
> > BioScience, Vol. 42, No. 7, Crop Productivity for Earth and Space 
> > (Jul. - Aug., 1992), pp. 494-502 doi:10.2307/1311879
> >
> > Tony
> >
> > phone : 02 6241 7659 | mailto:me at Tony-Barry.emu.id.au
> > mobile: 04 1242 0397 | mailto:tony.barry at alianet.alia.org.au
> > http://tony-barry.emu.id.au
> >
> >
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> >
>    
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-- 
Alan L Tyree                    http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
Tel: +61 2 4782 2670            Mobile: +61 427 486 206
Fax: +61 2 4782 7092            FWD: 615662




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