[LINK] Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study

[Alan L Tyree]

On Sun, 04 Feb 2007 20:08:58 +0800
Glen Turner <glen.turner at aarnet.edu.au> wrote:

> Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> 
> > I doubt that the modelling is particularly accurate, but the trends
> > are frightening. To me it is the knowledge that we don't know what
> > or when is going to happen next that is of th emost concern. We
> > need to learn to live with the unpredictability, not try and change
> > it.
> 
> [ One of the nice things about my job is that I chat with
>   a lot of real scientists.  Here's how the people at NCAR
>   described to to me. ]
> 
<SNIP>
> 
> But the IPCC model is the best we have, since we simply
> don't know enough to say which will be the first system
> to fail.
> 
> The obvious best way forward is to be guided by the
> precautionary principle. Equally obviously, that is going
> to alter the economy and people's lives in unimaginable
> ways. The greatest effect of this should fall upon the
> rich and powerful, since they are the greatest generators
> of greenhouse gasses. Again obviously, the rich and powerful
> can (try to) use their wealth and power to make the burden
> fall elsewhere (eg, China and India).

Of course it will fall "elsewhere". And until we know what sort of
changes we are talking about, I doubt that you can call it the
"precautionary principle" to turn lives upside down on the basis of
computer model predictions. If I were into "deconstruction", I might
have a look at the use of the term in this context.

I don't know if the IPCC model is the best we have. Richard Lindzen has
argued that the model does not take appropriate account of cloud
formation and that it over emphasises the effect of CO2 (as opposed to
other, more important, greenhouse gases like water vapour). He points
out that historical climate change has not correlated particularly well
with CO2 concentrations.

Which brings me back to my original point: models can be audited and
tested. The **least** we can expect is for these models to be
independently tested to see if they accurately predict past climate
changes. Surely any form of the "precautionary principle" would demand
that.

Alan


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-- 
Alan L Tyree                    http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
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