[LINK] Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study

[Alan L Tyree]

On Mon, 5 Feb 2007 08:59:04 +1100
Danny Yee <danny at anatomy.usyd.edu.au> wrote:

> Alan L Tyree wrote:
> > I don't know if the IPCC model is the best we have. Richard Lindzen
> > has argued that the model does not take appropriate account of cloud
> > formation and that it over emphasises the effect of CO2 (as opposed
> > to other, more important, greenhouse gases like water vapour). He
> > points out that historical climate change has not correlated
> > particularly well with CO2 concentrations.
> 
> What do you mean by "the model" here -- the IPCC report is based on
> many studies, using different models.  All GCMs include cloud
> formation and the effects of water vapour (otherwise they're produce
> complete nonsense) and anyone claiming "CO2 doesn't matter because
> water vapour is more important" is talking complete nonsense.  That's
> like saying of a bicycle that the forces on the pedals don't matter
> because the force of gravity is greater.

Nobody said "doesn't matter".

> 
> See
> http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/01/water-vapour-is-not-dominant.html
> for a better explanation of this than I can summarise.
> 
> > Which brings me back to my original point: models can be audited and
> > tested. The **least** we can expect is for these models to be
> > independently tested to see if they accurately predict past climate
> > changes. Surely any form of the "precautionary principle" would
> > demand that.
>  
> This _has_ been done for much of the modelling.  The IPCC report is
> not the result of a single study, but a meta-analysis of all the most
> up to date work in the area.
> 

Not my understanding of the verification situation, but I could be
wrong. 

Alan



> Danny.
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-- 
Alan L Tyree                    http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
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