[LINK] Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study

[Antony Barry]

On 05/02/2007, at 10:57 AM, Daniel Rose wrote:

> How can one accept the scientific case for peak oil, and not the case
> for global warming?
>
> Although clearly distinct, there are enough similarities between  
> the two
> that I find it unusual that you assume peak oil as fact, but entertain
> the idea that gw could be complete hogwash.

They seem to me to be pretty different. With global warming we have a  
huge amount of data and hideously complicated feedback processes to  
try and tease out to make prediction.

With peak oil it's obvious that the supply is finite and will peak at  
some stage but we have a lack of data. The OPEC countries reserve  
figures are suspect. If they are telling the truth we have 30 to 40  
years before the peak. But are they?

OPEC is a cartel and the problem any cartel has is how to share up  
the loot. in the early 1980s they decided to share the loot on the  
basis of their reserves. Magically over the next couple of years they  
all doubled their reserve figures. Further magic followed. They  
continued to produce for the next twenty years and somehow their  
reserve figures didn't change. They must have been discovering each  
year exactly what they produced! Kuwait has no broken ranks and  
downgraded it's reserves.

If you accept that their earlier 1980 reserve figures are more  
accurate and make allowance for some reasonable discovery you get a  
peak between now and 2015.

With peak oil politics has made the data suspect and thence the  
conclusion. With global warming politics has made the models suspect  
rather than the data.

My feeling is that peak oil will hit by the end of this decade and  
it's impact will be more immediate than global warming. The price of  
energy of all kinds will jump our capability to do anything,  
including anything about global warming, will be diminished.


Tony

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