[LINK] electromagnetic fields effect brain activity
tony at tony-barry.emu.id.au
Fri Jan 12 16:31:41 AEDT 2007
On 09/01/2007, at 12:47 PM, Alan L Tyree wrote:
> Am I the only one here old enough to remember the Club of Rome?
Yes. I read their report in draft and commented on it suggesting that
they should transfer the demand for oil to coal when the oil ran out.
as a consequence they cut their figure for the lifetime of coal
> course, those weren't scientific tests, they were computer models.
> most of the "scientific" predictions of today.
ALL mathematical based theories are models. Also as soon as you get
away from anything trivial there are no exact analytic solutions and
you have to go to numerical approximations. This means computers for
anything other than the extremely simple. Then to top it all off any
set of equations which aren't dead simple are chaotic and after a
period of time the prediction will rapidly drift away from what the
real world does because of the impossibility of pinning down the
initial conditions. The key is doing a sensitivity analysis to have a
handle on what the likely time into the future the prediction will
hold. Even planetary dynamics are chaotic over a sufficiently long
The Club of Rome said we could be in strife through a resource
crisis, a food crisis or a pollution crisis around the end of the
century depending what we did. They checked the sensitivity of the
prediction with respect to resources and showed that a doubling(?) of
reserves just moved the problem back a decade or two because of the
nature of exponential growth. They refined the model twice since.
Donella H Meadows, Dennis L Meadows and Jørgen Randers. "Beyond the
limits: global collapse or a sustainable future". Earthscan, 1992
Donella Meadows, Jørgen Randers and Dennis Meadows. "Limits to
growth; the 30-year update". Earthscan, 2005.
Their conclusions overall haven't changed. The timeline has shifted
back a few decades not unexpectedly and there is trouble coming a few
decades ahead. Depending what we do it will be very nasty or only
somewhat unpleasant for a time.
Look where we are at now -
Crude oil production will probably peak by 2015 and then start to
decline with natural gas not to far behind.
For many metals we are going to lower and lower quality ores.
Rapidly increasing dead zones in the oceans
Ozone hole not decreasing as expected
Inexplicable rise in cancers in the developed world
Rapid fall in the water tables in key grain growing areas which rely
on ground water
Per capita grain reserves lowest for 35 years
Loss of crude oil will impact heavily on the green revolution
The crunch is coming.
If anybody wants to discuss this could we shift it to unlink.
While I write this it is 40.8 degrees in my part of Canberra so I'm
feeling a bit crabby. It was over 40 yesterday but there is a change
coming although the storms appear to have gone to the south of us.
phone : 02 6241 7659 | mailto:me at Tony-Barry.emu.id.au
mobile: 04 1242 0397 | mailto:tony.barry at alianet.alia.org.au
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