[LINK] More Bandwidth Than You Can Use?

[Kim Holburn]

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/may2007/ 
tc20070529_569646.htm

> More Bandwidth Than You Can Use?
> Companies such as Verizon are starting to offer Internet connection  
> speeds that are 5 to 30 times faster than standard cable or DSL lines
>
> by Arik Hesseldahl
>
> From the moment the first phone-line modems squawked to life,  
> connecting consumers to early Internet service providers two  
> decades ago, there has been a nearly universal quest for more  
> plentiful and speedier data pipes into the home.
>
> Yet even now that those pipes are arriving, the race to provide  
> even bigger ones is intensifying among telecom and cable TV  
> companies, as well as wireless network operators.
>
> In Millis, Mass., freelance writer Michael Fitzgerald recently  
> boosted the speed with which he can reach the Internet by  
> subscribing to Verizon's (VZ) new FiOS broadband service. FiOS  
> delivers a super-fast connection by replacing the old copper phone  
> line to each home with a fiber-optic cable, offering Internet  
> downloads as fast as 30 megabits per second, vs. the 1Mbps to 6Mbps  
> of the typical cable or DSL broadband line. "I was intrigued by the  
> service when I first heard about it," says Fitzgerald. While he may  
> not fully exploit his new firepower with any regularity, Fitzgerald  
> is one of about 864,000 FiOS broadband subscribers. "Over the long  
> term, I think there will be benefits that I can't even begin to  
> imagine yet."

...

> Upgrade Déjà Vu
>
> But once you have 100Mbps or more available at home, what the heck  
> are you going to do with all that bandwidth? For the average  
> consumer, 6Mbps should more than suffice for today's typical needs,  
> whether it's downloading music, watching the occasional video, or  
> even running a home network that lets two or three computers do the  
> same all at once. Does anyone really care whether that song  
> download from iTunes (AAPL) takes 10 seconds or 2 seconds?
>
> We've been here before. In 1999, there were fewer than 2 million  
> people in the U.S. subscribing to either DSL or cable broadband. By  
> the end of 2006, that number exceeded 51 million, says the Dallas  
> consultancy Parks Associates. Meanwhile, prices have come down. In  
> 1999, Bell Atlantic, now part of Verizon, offered consumers a high- 
> end DSL package that topped 1.6Mbps for about $110 a month. Now  
> it's offering 3Mbps for $30 a month.
>
> That trend is going to repeat itself, says Parks Associates analyst  
> Michael Cai. "You'll see more bandwidth offered at the same price  
> you're paying now for less." The average cost of a megabit per  
> second in 2002 was more than $26 a month, Cai says, and by last  
> year it had dropped to $7. By 2010, it could drop as low as 80¢,  
> making 50Mbps for $40 a month sound positively mainstream.

...

> Is It Ever Too Much?
>
> But again, will consumers really need it? It's a question that  
> consumers will have to ask themselves as speedier offerings migrate  
> downstream from the bleeding edge to the mass market in the same  
> way that broadband supplanted dial-up Internet access. Much as  
> richer Web site graphics and music downloads idled millions of dial- 
> up modems, the smart money is betting that future online video  
> offerings—from high-definition TV and future iterations of YouTube- 
> type (GOOG) video-sharing sites to sophisticated online gaming and  
> video phone calls—will turn your average U.S. home into a 50Mbps  
> bandwidth hog within three years.
>
> "When you start adding up how much bandwidth that the average home  
> with a couple of teenagers might consume between 6 and 9 at night— 
> two or three people watching HDTV shows, playing music from the  
> Internet, playing online games—the bandwidth demands are going to  
> be gigantic," says Mark Wegleitner, Verizon's chief technology  
> officer.

...

> Winning with Gaming
>
> If video is going to take up the most bandwidth, then gaming will  
> likely come in second. A recent study by market research firm NPD  
> found that 62% of all people who play video games spend at least  
> some of their time doing so online. Much of this activity consumes  
> little bandwidth, since casual fare like a tame game of online  
> solitaire accounts for 44% of online game-playing. But a growing  
> number of gamers are playing sophisticated, bandwidth-intensive  
> games that go on for hours at a time. NPD found that owners of  
> Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox 360 spend an average of about 7 hours a  
> week playing games online.

...

> Interactive TV, Again
>
> Remember that old, discredited buzz phrase from the 1990s:  
> "interactive TV." Well, get ready for a comeback. If American Idol  
> doesn't prove that viewers will give more or less instant feedback  
> to TV programs they like, nothing will. Viewers cast more than 600  
> million votes over the course of Idol's latest season, including 74  
> million during the finale. Sure, it's easy to vote by phone or  
> wireless text message. But the upstream bandwidth—which users need  
> to upload data to the Internet rather than sucking it down—will be  
> there to allow votes from the comfort of a remote control.
>

...

> Forecast: New Applications
>
> Bandwidth demand won't be limited to the TV and computer, either.  
> There also will be a growing number of bandwidth-sipping devices  
> around the house, which as yet aren't typically connected to the  
> network. From heating and cooling systems to alarms and  
> surveillance cameras, an increasing number of devices will be  
> plugging into the network. Companies including AT&T (T) and  
> iControl Networks are already building products geared toward  
> monitoring the home and controlling lights and appliances remotely.
>
> But Verizon's Wegleitner also sees an opportunity in enabling the  
> ability to control what goes on in your house from a Web browser or  
> wireless phone. "I don't think we'd want to be the one selling the  
> service," he says. "But in the same way that you might want to turn  
> on the lights or the air conditioner before you get home, you might  
> also want to order a movie to be downloaded and waiting for you."
>
> And there are always applications that no one has thought of yet.  
> "Back when the first cable modems were demonstrated, the only  
> demanding application we could think of was sending photos," says  
> Comcast's Werner. "Now I'd say 80% of the commerce I do is online,  
> and so is a lot of the music and information use." Indeed, much has  
> happened in only the last three to five years to boost our thirst  
> for bandwidth. Given another three years, it can't help but grow  
> further.



--
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
Ph: +39 06 855 4294  M: +39 3494957443
mailto:kim at holburn.net  aim://kimholburn
skype://kholburn - PGP Public Key on request

Democracy imposed from without is the severest form of tyranny.
                           -- Lloyd Biggle, Jr. Analog, Apr 1961