[LINK] Schneier on Storm Worm

[Craig Sanders]

On Mon, Oct 08, 2007 at 11:14:04AM +1000, steve jenkin wrote:
> Craig Sanders wrote on 8/10/07 9:38 AM:
> > until/if we get AI, then technology IS NOT and CAN NOT BE a
> > substitute for human intelligence. and even then it would be
> > dangerous for us as a species to rely entirely on machines to do our
> > thinking for us if we dont want to die in the millions every time
> > there's a power failure or network outage.
> >
> > complex tasks require complex thinking.
> 
> In Aviation, flight computers can be designed as a Pilot Replacement or
> Pilot Assistant.
> These are very different approaches and result in very different systems.
> 
> 'Replacements' need to model/control all possible situations & errors...
> Definitionally impossible.
> 'Assistants' only need to do their assigned tasks correctly &
> dependably. Achievable.
> 
> From your writing, I'm unsure what approach you are advocating or
> assuming...
> Perhaps you could clarify this for me.

i don't know if i'm advocating any approach. just throwing buckets of
cold water on what i see as well-meaning, but still misguided, naivete.

we've tried that "oversimplify it and everything will be better"
approach for the last few decades. it hasn't worked, and it has led to
the security nightmare that we have now.




in terms of what i see as achievable or possible, i tend to agree with
what you wrote above.

i don't think replacements are possible now, or for the forseeable
future. not until we have actual self-aware (or close to) AI with
general intelligence (not just programmed or neural-network type
"evolved" knowledge in a specific domain), and intellectual curiosity
across a broad range of topics. i.e. until we have software that can
think roughly like a human does, or better, rather than merely compute.
that wont be any time soon.

i.e. "I think therefore I am" vs. "I only compute therefore I am not".
(with emphasis on the "I" in "I am"/"I am not").


and even if/when we do have it, it wont make any difference to the
computers everyday people use until it all runs on hardware costing no
more than mid-range PCs of today.

and it wont get into smaller devices until it runs on hardware costing a
miniscule fraction of that.


craig



-- 
craig sanders <cas at taz.net.au>

"I understand prayer quite well. It's a masturbatory exercise that
 gives catharsis to the pray-er and a placebo effect to the pray-ee,
 but only if the pray-ee knows he's being prayed for."
                     [John Hattan]