[LINK] Pascal's Wager applied to GLobal CLimate Change

[Jan Whitaker]

At 03:26 PM 18/01/2008, Rick Welykochy wrote:
><http://www.kn.com.au/sustainability/2007/12/pascals-wager.html>
>
>The video clip sums up quite nicely the consequences of
>doing nothing about GCC (and being wrong) vs doing something
>perhaps costly (and being wrong).
>
>How does this apply to Link? Reasoned analysis like this is
>easily disseminated now like never before. Public opinion can
>be better informed and force policy changes like never before.

Does anyone else remember Type I and Type II errors? One is 
commission [doing something] and one is omission [doing nothing]. 
This was part of the data analysis that was factored into statistical 
effect margins, right? Racking brain.


RE GCC, if we use resources [do something] to mitigate the problem, 
seems to me we end up with some good outcomes, almost regardless: 
more food, better energy that will last longer than the loss of big 
oil, not to mention the climate change avoidance. If we don't use 
resources, or continue to use them in the wrong way [ignore the 
problem by doing nothing], then the likelihood of the trends 
continuing are high and no benefits are realised.

This stuff makes my brain hurt.


haven't watched the video yet -- in progress.

Jan


Semi-finalist - Amazon Breakout Novelist Award 2008: The Truck - A 
baby-boomer nostalgia murder mystery
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00121WDVA - Read and rate now!

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
jwhit at janwhitaker.com
business: http://www.janwhitaker.com
personal: http://www.janwhitaker.com/personal/
commentary: http://janwhitaker.com/jansblog/

Writing Lesson #54:
Learn to love revision. Think of it as polishing the silver for 
guests. - JW, May, 2007
_ __________________ _