[LINK] Pascal's Wager applied to GLobal CLimate Change

David Boxall david.boxall at hunterlink.net.au
Sun Jan 20 16:20:42 AEDT 2008


Yes, climate change is horrendously complex.  That's the problem: most 
people can't handle complexity.  They really only pay attention to 
binaries (yes/no, true/false, good/evil, etc.).  The video simplifies 
the problem to a couple of binaries.

It's over-simplistic and inaccurate because it leaves out so much, but 
it's good enough.  Within the practicalities of communicating with a 
mass audience, perfection is not a realistic expectation.

I reckon the only real flaw is that he sugar-coats the worst-case 
scenario.  One I read had surface temperatures reaching 400 degrees 
(Celsius, I think).  That'd be really bad for business.

By the way, 
<http://www.somethinkodd.com/oddthinking/2007/10/12/climate-change-debate-and-false-dilemmas/> 
addresses
<http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=mF_anaVcCXg>, not 
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ>.

Alastair Rankine wrote:
> My friend Julian took this video apart pretty comprehensively a few 
> months ago:
>
> http://www.somethinkodd.com/oddthinking/2007/10/12/climate-change-debate-and-false-dilemmas/ 
>
>
> And, much as I hate to disagree with someone wearing a League of 
> Awesomeness t-shirt, I think Julian is right and this guy's reasoning 
> is faulty.
>
>
> On 18/01/2008, at 3:26 PM, Rick Welykochy wrote:
>
>> Linkers,
>>
>> I started looking around the interesting website posted easlier
>> by Mr Scheid (regarding Yellow Pages), and found this little gem.
>>
>> <http://www.kn.com.au/sustainability/2007/12/pascals-wager.html>
>>
>> The video clip sums up quite nicely the consequences of
>> doing nothing about GCC (and being wrong) vs doing something
>> perhaps costly (and being wrong).
>>
>> How does this apply to Link? Reasoned analysis like this is
>> easily disseminated now like never before. Public opinion can
>> be better informed and force policy changes like never before.
>>
>>
>> cheers
>> rickw

-- 
David Boxall                    |  My figures are just as good
                                 |  as any other figures.
                                 |  I make them up myself, and they
                                 |  always give me innocent pleasure.
                                 |                     --HL Mencken




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