[LINK] Re: Windows XP versus Vista

[Ivan Trundle]

On 23/01/2008, at 1:32 AM, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:

> Ivan writes:
>
>> ..'Has access' is a very loose term .. they need to travel to a place
>> with electricity, and a computer, and one with an internet  
>> connection.
>
> Agree Ivan .. the percentage of the world's population with acces to  
> the
> Internet is subjective. I was being generous, others say it's around  
> 20%.
> <http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm>, with Windows XP on  
> around
> +75% of computers. <http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=11 
> >

To be honest, I cannot see how the number of people with access to the  
internet can be determined. Even if one were to count the number of  
computers sold (and subtract a percentage which is known to be  
landfill, or no longer operational) and divde by the number of people,  
I'm sure the statistics would look different again - and that's not  
considering the multitudes of computers that are NOT connected to the  
internet. What other metrics are available? IP addresses don't mean  
much - since many are hoarded and unused, with NAT and DHCP confusing  
the issue. E-mail addresses don't count for much either.

>>> to maintain that access, Microsoft (the US) is demanding new  
>>> hardware.
>>
>> Why does this follow? I don't see the connection ..
>
> Vista wants 40 gig space and a gig ram. How many of the world's  
> computers
> would you say will run it now, especially in the third world  
> countries?

Who knows? But Vista has less than 4% penetration, according to  
statistics that I read yesterday (i.e. less than Mac OS). There are  
alternatives, even from the Windows camp: XP will continue for a long  
time to come, even if it is neither sold nor supported in the West.

> And
> with world fuel prices and talk of a global recession, how many  
> third world
> villages could afford to upgrade hardware when XP support stops in 5
> months?

I don't believe that this will be an impediment of any significance.  
Granted, there will come a time when alternatives will be sought: and  
they might not include Vista. A new industry of support for older  
hardware (and software) will exist for as long as there is an  
imperative to continue with the equipment, and until 'older' harder  
discarded by richer nations is devalued to the point of being  
affordable by all. This economic model persists.

>>> Instead, many in Asia and elsewhere
>>> will seek free alternatives, for example, Red Flag Linux (China)
>>> which is running on 80-95% of all of China's open source machines.
>>
>> And if there were only 100 open-source machines in China, that would
>> amount to almost 95 machines. Sorry, but this appears to be a  
>> collection
>> of sloppy statistics...
>
> Ivan have a look beyond numbers to the big picture. For me it's a  
> matter
> of world social justice, and the digital divide.  For shakey third  
> world
> computers, some virus-ridden, the continuation of XP support for  
> several
> years at least simply seems a world humanitarian necessity. Do you  
> agree?

Absolutely. The point I was making though is that we simply don't know  
the numbers of what is running on China's machines, open-source or  
otherwise. On the other hand, virus-ridden computers is an opportunity  
for some, and a challenge for others. Maybe a new industry in making  
better, cheaper, simpler software. Already China is embarking on an  
operating system that it can call its own.

Equity, on the other hand, is a complex issue...

The digital divide will persist, and whilst many of us place this at a  
high priority, the divide is sharper and more challenging at the  
social, economic, and political levels - not to say that technology is  
in the mix, but rather that the digital divide is narrowed only when  
the other 'divides' are tackled first.

>> From the MS perspective of profits-before-people, I say, not good  
>> enough!

And the irony is that America's richest man is now doing all he can to  
reverse this, though his altruism does not extend to offering MS  
technology for free to needy nations. The capitalist model that we  
embrace doesn't seem to allow for this.

> As well as marketing vertically to us 20% of the world with net  
> access etc
> why not horizontally, with say, XP RA (Remote Area) at US$20 for a  
> few CDs
> posted anywhere. An MS XT Beetle/Trabby/Mini for the world and your  
> Vista
> Caddy for broadband highways. Come on Microsoft! 20% and no less  
> than 20%!
>
> Windows XP, if it works, don't break it .. 75% of the world depend  
> on it.

'Depend' is unfortunate, but true.

>> We might well ponder if the computer be made in the east or the west
>> (it doesn't matter to me: I'm typing on a machine made in Shanghai),
>> but it is inevitable that computers will be designed in places that
>> stimulate the most innovation and creative thought, and made in  
>> places
>> that offer the cheapest labour and manufacturing: the two won't
>> necessarily be the same, and are unlikely to be so.  iT
>

Warmly

Ivan

--
Ivan Trundle
http://itrundle.com ivan at itrundle.com
ph: +61 (0)418 244 259 fx: +61 (0)2 6286 8742
skype: callto://ivanovitchk