[LINK] Re: Windows XP versus Vista

[Stephen Wilson]

David,

I was just trying to moderate the blanket remark that "It is extremely 
unlikely there will [be] infrastructure [in the third world] to even run 
a computer let alone have internet access".

As it stood, I thought that was a blunt over-generalisation.  I think we 
all need to take care in how we describe "the third world", and avoid 
slipping into suggestions like: "even at a growth rate of 35% per year, 
it will be decades before [Africa mobile phones] approach the 
penetration rate of western countries".

Well, no.  At 35% p.a., a population of 50 million phones would grow 
cover all of Africa in 11 years and all of the world in 16 years. 
That's way short of "decades".

Cheers,

Stephen Wilson.






David Goldstein wrote:
> Stephen,
> 
> You are right there are pockets of Africa with great
> telecommunications. Parts of South Africa come to mind. But a friend
> who lives in the capital of Namibia finds it difficult to get more
> than dial-up. And through mobile internet she gets a very expensive
> connection to the internet. A huge country of only two million people
> has more things on its mind than broadband access for all.
> 
> And an article by Steven Huter and Adiel Akplogan from the University
> of Oregon Network Startup Resource Center and Regional Registry for
> Internet Number Resources for Africa in The Guardian recently (see
> www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/dec/03/mondaymediasection.internet)
> outlines a lot of the problems. There are also other stories on my
> website under Digital Divide and Governance. See
> http://technewsreview.com.au/
> 
> But the main issues are lack of infrastructure, the cost of a
> personal computer,  limited or unavailable national infrastructure
> (power and fibre) and regulatory and political environments with
> cumbersome barriers that removed would encourage competition by
> opening up markets to engage more access providers.
> 
> The article referred to was broadly supported by contacts in Africa.
> 
> And yes, mobile communications are booming, but even at a growth rate
> of 35% per year, it will be decades before they approach the
> penetration rate of western countries. One thing though, electricity
> is unknown in many parts of the third world.
> 
> David
> 
> ----- Original Message ---- From: Stephen Wilson
> <swilson at lockstep.com.au> To: link at anu.edu.au Sent: Thursday, 24
> January, 2008 1:51:37 PM Subject: Re: [LINK] Re:  Windows XP versus
> Vista
> 
> 
> David Goldstein wrote:
>> A lot of this talk of whether a person living in the third world
>> can use Vista misses a very vital point. It is extremely unlikely
>> there will is the infrastructure to even run a computer let alone
>> have internet access.
> 
> This seems a rather pessimistic view of the "third world".
> 
> They have telecommmunications.  The Commission for Africa in 2004 
> reported that the "number of mobile subscribers has already grown to
>  over 50 million, representing over 7% of the population. The number
> of subscribers is currently expanding at around 35% a year, and is 
> forecast to continue over the next few years".
> 
> The only other infrastructure needed to run a PC would be
> electrickery,
> 
> which I don't think is unknown in the "third world".
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Stephen Wilson Managing Director Lockstep
> 
> Phone +61 (0)414 488 851
> 
> www.lockstep.com.au ------------------- * Lockstep Technologies: ICT
> Secrets of Innovation Finalist 2007 * Lockstep Technologies: Anthill
> / PwC Cool Company Finalist 2007 ------------------- Lockstep
> Consulting provides independent specialist advice and analysis on
> authentication, PKI and smartcards.  Lockstep Technologies develops 
> unique new smart ID solutions that safeguard identity and privacy.
> 
> _______________________________________________ Link mailing list 
> Link at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Make the switch to the world's best email. Get the new Yahoo!7 Mail
> now. www.yahoo7.com.au/worldsbestemail
> 
>