[LINK] NBN is FTTH

[steve jenkin]

Some info not yet on this thread.

The bit I really don't understand is the estimated cost/household (or is
that dwelling?)

$43B / 7.8M houses = $5,500/house... Which seems *very* high.
If it were $1,500/house, the economics would be appealing.

=> How can rentals be many multiples of current Cable TV
   (already mentioned on list)
   Shouldn't Moore's Law have forced prices down in 15 years?

Estimates nobody has touched in the press:
 - cost of downloads (mentioned on LINK list)
 - cost of multicast, such as TV subscribtion
   [main justification given for 100Mbps]


Wikipedia puts us in a Global Context (We've gone so far behind!):
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiber_to_the_premises_by_country>


NZ announced FTTP before us (31-March-09) 75% of houses for ~$1Bn:
<http://www.ovum.com/news/euronews.asp?id=7813>
<http://www.ovum.com/news/euronews.asp?id=7814>


Korea getting Gigabit and Ultra-HDTV by 2012/3
<http://www.koreaittimes.com/story/kccs-gigabit-internet-plans-too-good-be-true>
<http://www.koreaittimes.com/story/korea-plans-gigabit-internet>
<http://www.koreainformationsociety.com/2009/02/korea-to-build-ultra-broadband-internet.html>


And so is Singapore:
<http://www.mis-asia.com/news/articles/ultra-high-speed-broadband-by-2012-in-singapore>


Impact of Sol's strategy - he might've ruined Telstra:
<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25306410-5013584,00.html>


The figure I couldn't locate quickly: the cost per home of the cable TV
rollout... Guess $1-2,000/household.
Can't remember Transacts' published figures.



This ACCC report cites:
<http://www.accc.gov.au/content/item.phtml?itemId=806382&nodeId=55ab07ed8ae43f2cf0664d04b0552e0b&fn=Optus%20Appendix%20I%20-%20Telstras%20Overbuild%20of%20the%20Optus%20HFC%20Network%20-%20public%20version%20(May%2008).pdf>
 - Telstra began their cable rollout about April 1994
 - Optus in September 1994
 - Optus guessed overbuild would be low (22%) in the 4-year build period
 - the degree of overbuild is at least 80%
 - In July 1997 Telstra wrote off $961 million of its investment
 - In 2002, Optus wrote down ... its HFC network by almost $1.4 billion.
 - coverage was 2.5M (Telstra) & 2.25M (Optus) with 80% overlap

The 2003 OECD report mentioned can be found via:
<http://www.oecd.org/document/39/0,3343,fr_21571361_34590630_25594855_1_1_1_1,00.html>


-- 
Steve Jenkin, Info Tech, Systems and Design Specialist.
0412 786 915 (+61 412 786 915)
PO Box 48, Kippax ACT 2615, AUSTRALIA

sjenkin at canb.auug.org.au http://members.tip.net.au/~sjenkin