[LINK] Optus & NBN - Errata
Tom Koltai
tomk at unwired.com.au
Mon Jun 8 13:44:16 AEST 2009
Replying to my own earlier posting - the Optus shareholder responsible
for HFC was US-West, not Cable and wireless - duh!
> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Tom Koltai
> Sent: Sunday, 7 June 2009 5:44 PM
> To: stephen at melbpc.org.au; link at anu.edu.au
> Subject: Re: [LINK] Optus & NBN
>
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au
> > [mailto:link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of
> > stephen at melbpc.org.au
> > Sent: Sunday, 7 June 2009 3:48 PM
> > To: link at anu.edu.au
> > Subject: [LINK] Optus & NBN
> >
> >
> > Telstra split-up key to NBN viability, says Optus
> >
> > Mitchell Bingemann | June 06, 2009 The Australian
> > www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25594083-
> > 36418,00.html
> >
> >
> > THE federal Government's $43billion national broadband
> > network will be
> > economically unviable unless Telstra is structurally
> > separated, arch- rival Optus says.
> >
> > Speaking at the Trans Tasman Business Circle in Sydney
> > yesterday, Optus
> > chief executive Paul O'Sullivan said a monthly wholesale
> > access price of
> > $50 could be expected if NBN penetration levels hit 60 per cent.
>
> Absolute Crapola.
> Japan is offering 100 mb per second for under $38.00.
> There is no requirement to bundle a telephone.
> Australia is the eigth most expensive country for broadband
> in the OECD world in other words, there are 22 countiries
> around the world including Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal, Czech
> Republic that are cheaper than Australia.
>
> I blogged about it here
> http://www.perceptric.com/blog/_archives/2009/5/15/4186493.htm
> l (with OECD Graph)
>
> > A $50 per month wholesale access charge would equate to a
> > retail price
> > average of about $106 per month for a broadband and
> telephony bundle
> > today, an Optus spokeswoman said.
> >
> > "We think this is a realistic price level -- and will allow
> > for retail
> > prices which are not out of line with those paid today," Mr
> > O'Sullivan said.
>
> Yeah - in a world where the ogilopoly sets the wholesale
> pricing. No thank-you - I though that was the whole idea of
> the NBN to get us, as a nation, away from price fixing cartel
> type activities.
>
> > An NBN penetration level of 60 per cent would be sufficient
> > to ensure a viable commercial return, but Mr O'Sullivan said this
> could only be
> > achieved if Telstra was structurally separated and its
> access network
> > used as the building blocks for the Government's
> > fibre-to-the-premises
> > broadband project.
>
> Ummmm, I beg to differ; in a price led envirobnment - all
> comers same wholesale cost price, I think you will find that
> a lot of small CSP's spring up overnight to service their
> communities. As the smaller companies don't have executive
> dining floors, they can afford to work on much lower margins
> whilst offering much higher levels of non-ivr/non-malaysian
> call centre service levels, so I would hazard a guess that
> around 18% penetration Australia wide would be sufficient to
> deliver a profitable NBN.
>
> After all - the NBN isnt about Telephony any more.
>
> Paul - you are so out of touch it aint even funny.
>
> > "First of all, we think the NBN can be economically viable," Mr
> > O'Sullivan said.
> >
> > "Secondly, to achieve this outcome the NBN must be the only network
> > delivering high-speed broadband services to Australians.
>
> Bullshit. Telstra have spent an arm and a leg in 3G/4G
> emerging infrastructure. (Am I defending Telstra? God - I
> must be having an off day).
>
> To throw Teltra's, (and vodaphones) investment out the window
> someone would have to repay their shareholders the outlay.
> Mr. Sullivan, do you see Optus doing that ?
>
> Apart from being downright stupid - the end of a monopoly is
> what the NBN is all about. You words indicate that you want
> the monopoly to
> continue, but with you at the head of it. Shame shame shame. Resign
> now. Take my word for it, I'm an expert at putting my foot in
> my mouth and I'm telling you Paul, you just did it.....
>
> > "Thirdly, the essential way to ensure that is to structurally
> > separate Telstra, so that its network becomes the foundation for the
> NBN into
> > which the Government invests.
>
> Whilst I agree with Structural seperation, If you remove the
> HSDPA network and demand open access to all Testras fibre
> network, what do Telstra shareholders have left?
>
> To structurally separate Telstra, the individual business
> models must have a chance of surviving.
>
> For example - Telephony is dead. Get used to it.
> Foxtel is dead - get over it.
> Broadband wirelss data is very much alive. (That's one
> division.) Copper maintenance services (Lot of life left
> there.) Customer service (Mobile/cellular has serious life left.)
>
> That only leaves the Wholesale division, which happens to own
> Australias largest Co-lo facility (well if they managed it as
> one) and some copper and a little bit of Fibre.
>
> There are actually at least five separate entities in any
> unbundling exercise, however it has to be done in a manner as
> to not disenfranchise the shareholders.
>
> That means a 1 to 5 split on Telstra - and I'm suggesting
> long on that one - but then my tips arnt all that good, so
> maybe we should forget that.
>
> > "But if there are two competing networks around the country,
> > Telstra's and the NBN, then we think the NBN business case becomes a
> very
> > challenging one."
>
> Yep. What a shame the Optus wireless plans were ditched.
>
> > Mr O'Sullivan cited the cable broadband wars of the 1990s as
> > an example of how competition could sour when new entrants attempted
> to take on
> > vertically integrated incumbents.
>
> I don't see a problem. It's called market competition. Optus
> had the market all to themselves. Telstra entered it and won.
> It wasn't a war. It was consumer benefiting competition -
> right up till the ACCC folded on the cable content inquiry.
>
> > "In the HFC network wars of the mid-90s, Telstra spent billions on
> > rolling out its own HFC network -- not to secure new
> revenues but to
> > defend its existing telephony revenues. Hence the approach
> > became known as the 'telephony defence strategy'," Mr
> O'Sullivan said.
>
>
> Actually, I didn't see that as a cable play, I saw it as a
> save the ISDN
> network, Broadband play. Especially with Telstra attempting
> to legislate
> pairgain modems illegal (early DSL).
>
> > During these cable wars Telstra took a $1 billion write-down
> > as it rolled out its network wherever Optus had gone
> before. It ended
> up being a
> > successful strategy for the telco, though, as it destroyed the
> viability
> > of Optus's cable business and protected Telstra's
> fixed-line margins.
>
> I have a different version of events and it relates to management
> shareholder issues.
> Optus had a shareholderm, Cable & Wireless who somehow managed to
> convince Optus to install an HFC siolution that didn't work
> when it was
> rolled out.
>
> > "If the Government does not act to ensure a single network
> > for the NBN, expect to see 'telephony defence strategy mark
> II'," Mr
> > O'Sullivan said.
>
> If that means more competition with subsequent lower prices for the
> consumer, higher uptake of services and more commerce as a result -
> BRING IT ON........
>
> > Mr O'Sullivan said Optus was now willing to vend its HFC
> assets for an
>
> > equity stake in the NBN.
>
> Except it doenst work. Well not very well.
>
> > "We are willing to look at putting ... our HFC network into
> > the NBN but
> > it's up to the NBN Co whether they need it or not," Mr
> > O'Sullivan said.
>
> I hope not. It's outdated legacy technology that was outdated when it
> was installed.
>
> > "We are willing to consider all the options as long as there is a
> clear,
> > level playing field being created, and what we get is true
> > open access and competition, and that no retail carrier can control
> the network."
>
> At last - a statement that I have no problem with.
>
> Tom
>
>
> _______________________________________
> No viruses found in this outgoing message
> Scanned by iolo AntiVirus 1.5.6.4
> http://www.iolo.com
>
> _______________________________________________
> Link mailing list
> Link at mailman.anu.edu.au
> http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
>
>
> _______________________________________
> No viruses found in this incoming message
> Scanned by iolo AntiVirus 1.5.6.4
> http://www.iolo.com
>
_______________________________________
No viruses found in this outgoing message
Scanned by iolo AntiVirus 1.5.6.4
http://www.iolo.com
More information about the Link
mailing list