[LINK] Broadband Around the World - Telstra claims one of the highest ARPU's in the World

Tom Koltai tomk at unwired.com.au
Fri May 22 11:44:45 EST 2009



> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman1.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of 
> Richard Chirgwin
> Sent: Friday, 22 May 2009 10:14 AM
>
> They did not come up with a "real ARPU". The methodology is 
> set out on the OECD
> site: 
> http://www.oecd.org/document/1/0,3343,en_2649_34225_39575489_1
_1_1_1,00.html

>It is based, as I said, on price for different plans at the advertised
speed. In fact, the OECD uses "promotional 
>units" - the advertised plan price, and that alone, with no allowance
for buying patterns.

>Now, across the whole industry, Australia's ARPU might be more than $40
... around $30 in USD. So there's no 
>justification for saying, as this will inevitably be reported, that
"Australians pay more than $50 per month" or 
>whatever.

>If I wanted a genuine basis of comparison, I would look at:

>(Average disposable income (normalised to US dollars) / Industry-wide
ARPU by country (in US dollars))

>This could then be expressed as % of disposable income per Mbps.

>This would tell us how much of their disposable income people in
different OECD countries have to spend to get access >to the Internet,
without the artificial distortions of a silly and inadequate figure.

>It would relate the price to the ability to pay, and provide a decent
basis for debate.

Actually, Richard there is a better and more accurate measurement,
unfortunately, few have access to it.

Assumptions:
That 50% of all Telstra IP user traffic goes via the US (PAIX) via
Telstras 12 racks in-situ.

That 100% of the Telstra IP users are on the plans that Richard
outlined.

>To extend the example, today's Telstra ADSL plan prices are $29.95,
$39.95, $59.95, $69.95, $79.95, $89.95, $99.95 
>and $149.95; the average is about $75.50.

That each plan has monthly MB download/upload Cap.

That Telstras traffic across the PAIX backbone is an accurate reflection
of 50% of the Australian Internet Users traffic habits.

Then methodology equals, Total CAP from all plans under $50.00 * 100% of
Telstra IP users * 50% >< PAIX in/out traffic.

Suprisingly the answer is a few thousand terrabytes short.

So lets add-in the CAP voilumes of the hifgher plans and divide the
utilisation by 1/8th for each plan.

Still a few thousand TB short.
Its not until we say that 35% of Telstra users are on the highest CAP
plan that the traffic at 50% comes close to equalising with the actual
in/out numbers.

So Richard, without fear of contradiction, I can safely say that if we
assume that 75% of users are on Telstras lowest plan ($29.95) and 35%
are on Telstras highest Plan $149.95 then the average according to the
numbers I have which are:

Total internet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.$2,486,000,000
Total IP & data access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$1,745,000,000
from the TELSTRA PDF Annual Report 2008

A total of 	$4,231,000,000 (including mobile data plans).

I therefore get ARPU's of :

65%	 $249.70 each subscriber.
35%	 $134.45 each subscriber.

Yep - definitely the highest in the world.


Tom









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