[LINK] Why Should We Believe the Panel on Climate Change?

Bernard Robertson-Dunn brd at iimetro.com.au
Thu Jul 15 14:44:29 AEST 2010

On 15/07/2010 2:20 PM, Stilgherrian wrote:
> On 15/07/2010, at 2:00 PM, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
>> In Politics, Sometimes The Facts Don't Matter
>> [USA] National Public Radio
>> http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128490874
>> This is TALK OF THE NATION. I’m Neal Conan in Washington.
>> We'd like to believe that most of what we know is accurate and that if
>> presented with facts to prove we're wrong, we would sheepishly accept
>> the truth and change our views accordingly.
>> A new body of research out of the University of Michigan suggests that's
>> not what happens, that we base our opinions on beliefs and when
>> presented with contradictory facts, we adhere to our original belief
>> even more strongly.
>> The phenomenon is called backfire, and it plays an especially important
>> role in how we shape and solidify our beliefs on immigration, the
>> president's place of birth, welfare and other highly partisan issues.
>> ... etc
> More at:
> "How facts backfire
> Researchers discover a surprising threat to democracy: our brains"
> http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/
> Stil
Thanks Stil, more grist  to the mill.

And there's even more at the Science Show
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
The dumb get confident, while the intelligent get doubtful. That's the 
conclusion that David Dunning and Justin Kruger came to when studying 
people's perceptions of their own talents. What has now become known as 
the Dunning-Kruger effect helps describe why lay people often act as 
experts and inept pollies get our votes.


The verdict was in; idiots get confident while the smart get modest, an 
idea that was around long before Dunning and Kruger's day. Bertrand 
Russell once said, 'In the modern world the stupid are cocksure while 
the intelligent are full of doubt.' From his essay 'The Triumph of 
Stupidity', published in 1933.



Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email:	 brd at iimetro.com.au
website: www.drbrd.com

More information about the Link mailing list