[LINK] The shadow effect - NBN - wireless-v-wired

Tom Koltai tomk at unwired.com.au
Wed Oct 27 14:57:37 AEDT 2010


In support of FTTH, we offer a snippet from the blurb of an American
corp. "Instat", spruiking their latest industry research report which
predicts that:
Ethernet will grow by over six billion dollars over the next four years
(40% growth). 

Quote/
US Business Spending up 2% for Wired Broadband Data Despite Bad Economy.
Highest Spending Gains are in Education, as well as Healthcare and
Social Services Verticals
The US business market for wireline data remained steady with
year-over-year average gains of roughly 2%. The Education vertical is
seeing the highest spending gains, while Construction is faring the
worst. The Healthcare and Social Services vertical market spent $5.5
billion on wireline data services in 2009.
Some additional data: 
The overall market reflects a spending shift to Ethernet at the expense
of both the ATM and frame relay markets. 
The frame relay market is forecasted to shrink 57%, while Ethernet
spending will exceed $18 billion by 2014. 
Small business spending will grow at a greater rate over the next five
years than any other size of business segment. 
Retail and trade will spend over $3 billion on Ethernet services in
2012. 
/Quote
(Source:
http://www.instat.com/catalog/ecatalogue.asp?id=636#IN1004791WDFS)

Observation: 
With the exception of (GSM Digital) mobile phones in the nineties, the
United States appears to be a technology consumer trend setter 
Technology transfers from the inventing states to the implementer
states.
The more popular the branding, the faster the roll-on effect.
E.g.: USA iPod to Australia. (Roll on timing 12 months.)
This 6 - 18 month shadow effect also applies to financial instruments
and the general economy;
E.g.:  Restaurants close enmasse in New York, eighteen months later,
restaurants close enmasse in Sydney.

So it is note-worthy that American statisticians working for Instat
predict a strong continued growth in wired broadband over the next four
years.
Ethernet growth chart at :
http://www.in-stat.com/images-1/Ethernet_Services_10-2010.gif

Conclusion:
The NBN will be successful because technologically, it works.
Wireless is an important adjunct, but with today's spectrum stacking
technology, is currently incapable of totally replacing always on 1Gbps
broadband for all of the population on a permanent basis. 
This will continue to force the Telcos to price wireless bandwidth as a
scarce resource to maximise the length of the wireless revenue tail.
Which of course will force more persons to switch to 802.11n/e/y capable
handsets, which in turn will cause serious long term fiscal damage to
the Telcos. 
2.5 Ghz to 3.6 Ghz spectrum is starting to look like a hell of a good
investment.  

The Solution:
Deliver the NBN free to every home and charge by the Gigabyte for
services delivered across it on a tiered pricing plan:
E.g.:
Calls to 000 = free
Channel 2,7,9,10, =$.01 cent per minute
Radio =$.01 cent per minute
Movies=$.01 cent per minute
Internet=$0.1 cent per Gigabyte

In that manner, every Australian will be able to benefit from the NBN
and of course take-up would be ubiquitous.
Just possibly the NBN could deliver 802.11y towers at each and every
telephone exchange for the wireless broadband network of the future.
After all, wireless still needs backhaul for distribution and after the
NBN is built, it will be Australia's largest [operational] backhaul
network.

The debate over the NBN versus wireless is in reality the old school
(Telco's) versus the new school (P2P - almost free - wireless networks).

The Wireless Telco's with their LTE product are struggling to deliver a
viable alternative to the inevitable "GSM No longer utilised here" 802..
P2P endgame.

Tom












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