[LINK] Telstra vs NBN, Comcast Triple Play 105 Mb, Telstra Wins again.

[Kim Holburn]

On 2011/Apr/16, at 9:47 AM, Tom Koltai wrote:


> As we know, the Telstra Cable TV network is exempted from the NBN.
> 
>> From an article in June 2010
> Quote/  [From:
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/pay-tv-a-winner-as-foxtel-spare
> d/story-e6frg8zx-1225882024295]
> 
>> TELSTRA yesterday emerged as a pay-TV winner on two fronts.
>> Its 50 per cent stake in Foxtel is safe, while the Telco also retains
>> Foxtel as a customer of its cable network until this infrastructure is
>> eventually switched off.
>> Foxtel's 1.6 million householder customers were a notable exclusion from
>> Canberra's deal, which sees Telstra's copper and broadband customers
>> migrate to the national broadband network.
>> 
>> As with its copper network, Telstra's hybrid fibre coaxial cable network
>> eventually will be switched off. But in the meantime, according to the
>> Telco, "Telstra will continue to use its cable network to meet its
>> pay-TV contract with Foxtel....".
>> /Quote.
> 
> Once again Telstra have managed to negotiate themselves into a most
> advantageous position. (Switched off - yeah right!!!)

It's copper, if the NBN is successful why wouldn't it be switched off as people move to glass?  Not to mention crappy lock in to one cable TV company when you could get any TV you want through the internet.

> The last instance was the local loop when Optus said that they weren't
> interested in the copper local loop. 
> Stewart Fist, Robin Whittle and I tried to tell Optus that they _WERE_
> interested in the copper, but no-one was home.

It was too expensive for them, it would never have given them the reach or leverage to compete with Telstra and would have invoked the USO and they would have to have put in the cabinets as well, nightmare.

> With the enhanced (extreme 105) technology (based on common old Docsis
> 3) available to Telstra possibly as far back as 2008 it is obvious that
> their negotiations in June last year (Sol Trujillo inspired) may have
> been based partly on bad faith.
> Then again,  the ASX rules, the ASIC rules and Telstra's shareholders
> actually force the Telstra Board to be the Nemesis of the NBN.
> Eleven Billion without simultaneous Telstra Wholesale and Retail
> separation leaves current Telstra shareholders holding a future class
> action suite.
> 
> How could this ever have turned out any other way ?
> 
> I don't think Malcolm will need to do much at all, the NBN appears to be
> headed straight for a cliff.[1]

It always looks that way to the Australian.

> It may be time for Government to look at the options before it one more
> time.
> 
> The Cable TV Coax to one quarter of Australian Homes with Docsis three
> Extreme 105 would wipe 25% off the cost of the NBN and would mean
> customers and revenues NOW.
> 
> The value of that Network is the revenue that Telstra shareholders
> receive today. That revenue is only 75 million per annum (for the cable
> TV delivery to Foxtel customers)  and a possibly similar amount for
> BigPond Broadband customers. (Two separate profit centres.)
> 
> Let's estimate the value as being 150 million x 3 plus 100 mill
> goodwill. 
> I guess the Government should be able to buy that network on commercial
> terms for about 600 million to a billion.
> 
> That leaves 9 billion in the kitty for QLD reconstruction, School
> Janitorial contracts extensions and other sundry expenditures that
> Governments have from time to time.
> But what this would do, is balance the books. That would be a good thing
> for the public perception of the state of the economy.
> 
> Secondly, the lines can be redrawn, and resources focused in the country
> areas.
> We could rejig the rollout to be Fibre to the Node, with householders
> given the option of community fibre rollout participation or of course,
> 60-90 GHz delivery options.
> 
> There are many options for a successful high speed rollout. There would
> seem to be little reason for not exploring these, even on a temporary
> basis (one or two decades) to decrease the costs.
> 
> Telecommunications these days is no longer "one size fits all", it has
> become a rapidly evolving swiss army knife.
> The ISP era converted the Carrier "old boys club" into a new commercial
> world where success is based on the level of disruption one can
> introduce into existing carrier delivery business plans.
> 
> The NBN doesn't currently offer any disruption to anyones business
> model, and until it does, my guess is that economically, it is doomed to
> failure.

If failure means we all get decent internet, well I for one welcome that failure.

> In it's current incantation, it will no doubt bring the current
> government down with it - which is a shame, because although I've heard
> a lot of sniping from the other side, I have yet to see an alternative
> business plan that would ensure that all Australians receive affordable
> high speed broadband to their homes.
> 
> As I have quoted before:
> 
> Quote/
> "I think historically where we [venture capitalists] fail is when we
> back technology. Where we succeed is when we back new business models." 
> Bob Higgins, founder and managing general partner of Highland Capital
> Partners (Harvard Business Review )/Quote
> 
> The NBN in it's current configuration is not yet a new "disruptive"
> business model. 

I don't think the NBN is a business model.  It's a government infrastructure system.  Business models will sit on top of it.  

-- 
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
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