[LINK] IPv4 Exhaustion

[Richard Chirgwin]

On 1/02/11 4:43 PM, Tom Worthington wrote:
> Roger Clarke wrote:
>> Now that we prettymuch know the actual date, has anyone done a trace
>> of Geoff Huston's predictions, and their relationship to the actual
>> result? ...
> Geoff Huston's 2007 prediction for IPv4 Exhaustion was 22nd May 2010,
> which was reasonable. This is in "IPv4 Unallocated Address
> Space Exhaustion" (2007-09-24):
> <http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-55/presentations/huston-ipv4.pdf>.
>
> This is referenced in the Wikipedia entry "IPv4 Address Exhaustion"
> which has a good summary of the issues:
> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion>.
>
And in a 2006 presentation (therefore on an earlier model), Geoff had 
January 2012 ... www.potaroo.net/presentations/2006-03-01-V4-Projections.ppt

It isn't surprising that the predictions would converge with reality 
over time: the prediction itself would be enough to affect behaviour (he 
predicted a "rush" to secure addresses as exhaustion approached).

"If we use addresses at the 2005 rate, they will be exhausted in 2010" - 
the effect of the statement, if heeded, would I suppose create 
circumstances which move the window - because the use of addresses is 
not independent of what's known about the availability of addresses.

Back in 2003, the projection was 2019:
www.potaroo.net/presentations/2003-09-04-V4-AddressLifetime.ppt

RC