[LINK] Congestion (was Re: NBN to cost 24 times South Korea's faster network, says research body)

Birch, Jim Jim.Birch at dhhs.tas.gov.au
Fri Feb 11 13:45:00 AEDT 2011

Stil and Marghanita da Cruz wrote:

>> ... a base station at the end of every suburban street.

> This is the point I was making, though I am not sure from this
argument, whether you and Narelle are for or against the deployment of

A base station on every street corner is a fibre deployment too.

<boe calc alert>

If WiMax makes it to 1 Gb/s as anticipated, and some potential
show-stopper cell proximity problems can be worked around, the question
is how many customers can share that 1 Gb/s - and for how long.   As
your number goes down, you get to the dollar point where you do FTTP.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" (according
to Yogi Berra) but estimates of application bandwidth that I've seen are
8 Mb/sec for HDTV with good quality compression and 25 Mb/sec (with 50
ms latency) for non-clunky HD telepresence.  This would give you 15
telepresence channels, 50 TVs and a number of current day browser
sessions and phone calls on a WiMax tower.  I'm guessing that this might
serve 40 households at peak times, provided that something else like
always-on video or telehairdressing didn't take off.  If we'd already
hit some hard cell proximity/spectrum limits, we'd be in water
restriction territory with consequent internecine bandwidth-rage events.
I'm also guessing that 40 households would be somewhere near the cost
equivalent point for fibre to the home.  And no bandwidth stress, mmmm.

This kind of calculation suggests to me that FTTP is a pretty good deal,
especially given its bandwidth upside.  I'm guessing numbers and costs,
but it seems to me that FTTH is a dead certainty within a few years so
we should try to think up a reuse for all the WiMax poles now.  Anyone?
And I suppose this just a grossly simplified version of the calculation
the NBN did....

- Jim   


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