[LINK] France Tracks Down 18 Million File-Sharers

[Kim Holburn]

On 2011/Jul/16, at 1:00 PM, Tom Koltai wrote:

> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
>> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Kim Holburn
>> Sent: Friday, 15 July 2011 9:23 PM
>> To: Link list
>> Subject: [LINK] France Tracks Down 18 Million File-Sharers
>> 
>> http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/07/french-agency-
>> were-swamped-with-three-strikes-complaints.ars
>> 
>> http://torrentfreak.com/france-tracks-down-18-million-file-sha
>> rers-110714/
>> 
>>> Starting October last year French Internet users have been 
>> receiving 
>>> letters as part of the three-strikes system built-in to the 
>>> controversial Hadopi anti-piracy legislation. This week the agency 
>>> responsible for the warnings gave out details on the scope of the 
>>> operation. In the last 9 months 18 Million file-sharers 
>> were tracked, 
>>> but due to limited capacity 'only' 470,000 warnings were 
>> sent out to 
>>> first-time offenders.
> 
> More absolute statistical bending. We are asked to believe that of a
> countries 62 million population 18 million are file sharers. 

In one of those links it says that there were 18 Million "incidents" but that wasn't 18 million accounts.  Many accounts had multiple "incidents".

> According to the OECD, 73% of France uses the Internet [45,260,000].
> That means that 39% use file sharing.
> 
> I think it a lot more likely that 0.010384445% (or 470,000 [1% of the
> pop.]) of French persons use File sharing software.
> 
> This is in line with the graphic that I published a few months ago...
> http://kovtr/com/data/ED2K_RIP_2007_2010.png (from statistics collected
> in France by Peerates.)
> 
> Unfortunately, French legislators have been gypped into believing that
> File sharing is a problem via the scandalously prepared Tera Report.
> Therefore the lie needs to continue to be perpetuated.
> 
>> In the last 9 months 18 Million file-sharers 
>> were tracked
> 
> That obviously means that in the last nine months only 18 million IP
> numbers were noted as being involved with File Sharing activity.
> 
> The article doesn't explain how the investigators knew that that each of
> the IP numbers was a different file sharer.
> Nor did they explain how the same file sharer over nine months probably
> reconnected their TCP sessions using several different IP numbers.
> 
> This theorem can be tested by arguing that possibly each file sharer
> identified (470,000) downloaded one file every 7 days over nine months.
> Why that would result in .... 18,000,000 occurrences. Gee, what a
> coincidence.
> 
> 470000 x 38.3 weeks = 18,000,000 
> 
> Another example of the copyright cops inability to tell a good yarn.
> Obviously a total lack of Irish (blarney stone beneficiaries) working
> for the copyright industry.
> 
> References:
> 
> http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/24/5/48255770.pdf
> 
> 
> 

-- 
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
T: +61 2 61402408  M: +61 404072753
mailto:kim at holburn.net  aim://kimholburn
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