[LINK] NBN a done-deal Thursday?

[Tom Koltai]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of 
> stephen at melbpc.org.au
> Sent: Wednesday, 22 June 2011 4:19 PM
> To: link at anu.edu.au
> Subject: [LINK] NBN a done-deal Thursday?
> 
> 
> Telstra fixed for $11b deal to hang up on monopoly 
> 
> by Lucy Battersby, Clancy Yeates  June 22, 2011. 
> <http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news>
> 
> 
> THE government is on the cusp of signing two 
> multibillion-dollar deals 
> designed to lock in the national broadband network and restructure 
> telecommunications as we know it.

Actually, no it's not. Telecommunications changed in September last year
when Mobile usage of the Web overtook tethered utilisation. [1]

Government should be malleable in it's policy formation and stay abreast
of trends.
Users do not take to technology for the sake of technology (geeks
excepted). Users adopt technology for convenience and lifestyle
enhancement.

Telstra has been buying up spectrum wherever it can. 
With the 1.9 GHz spectrum (iBurst) Telstra's offering will be Australia
wide, high speed (4G) and preferred by tomorrow's generation over the
NBN. 

> The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, is expected to unveil a 
> historic $11 
> billion infrastructure-sharing agreement with Telstra as soon as 
> tomorrow, after the cabinet met late into Monday night to discuss the 
> deal.
> 
> The board of the government-owned NBN Co, which is building 
> the network, 
> met and approved the deal last Friday. Telstra's board met at 
> the weekend 
> to discuss the deal which has been in negotiations since 
> December 2009.
> 
> Advertisement: Story continues below Ms Gillard is expected 
> to announce 
> that the cabinet approves the deal, subject to a review by 
> the corporate 
> advisory group Lazard. A rejection would disrupt the rollout 
> timetable 
> and bring the whole broadband project into question. 
> 
> Under the agreement, Telstra expects to receive $11 billion from 
> taxpayers in return for gradually shutting down its copper 
> wire network 
> and sharing its underground ducts with NBN Co. 
> 
> Without the Telstra agreement - which still requires approval from 
> Telstra shareholders - construction would take longer and NBN 
> Co would 
> have to compete against Telstra for customers already using 
> its copper 
> and cable networks. 

My understanding is that the cable networks [sans broadband capability -
cough cough] are exempt from the handover deal. [4]

>The deal saves about $1.7 billion in construction 
> costs and improves NBN Co's business model because customers 
> will quickly 
> migrate to NBN Co, a report published last year found. 

The only way customers would quickly migrate to NBNCo. Is by someone
yanking out the copper.
But I would love to read that report. Does anyone know what it is called
and who authored it ?

> Households and businesses will have to use NBN Co's fibre or rely on 
> wireless services. 

That would doubtless be the Telstra 1.9 GHz and Vivid 2.3 GHz high speed
Wimax networks.

[2] TELSTRA has forecast that mobile broadband will need a massive 5GHz
of spectrum allocation by 2030. 
[3] Telstra bought iBurst's wireless spectrum

>Optus is also believed to be in the final 
> stages of 
> negotiating a deal worth up to $1 billion to shut down parts 
> of its cable 
> network and transfer customers to NBN Co. 
 
I don't know why. Fifteen year old Optus CAU's are failing [leaking] all
over the country.
One would think that Optus Customers would jump at the chance of being
on a non-leaky non HFC solution.

> Telstra expects to receive about $4.5 billion for 
> transferring customers 
> and about $4.5 billion for a long-term infrastructure leasing
contract. 

I presume that's the conduits in the streets.  The PT&T pits and cable
ducts, installed with Australian Taxes.

> But these values are in today's money and the dollar figures 
> are expected 
> to increase over time. 
> 
> The government is keen to finalise the deals to bed down the 
> broadband 
> network and shift the public discussion away from the 
> corruption scandal 
> at the former employer of the NBN Co's chief executive, Mike Quigley.

The next discussion will doubtless be where customers are forced onto
the NBN dial-tone by removal of the copper.
That wont work unless costs are comparable to copper line rental - which
of course would undermine the NBN forecasts.
I think over the next couple of years we will see copper removed on the
pretext that there is room in the ducts for fibre...

> For the opposition, however, the Telstra deal undermines its 
> policy of 
> halting the network and allowing the Productivity Commission 
> to advise on 
> a cheaper way to provide faster broadband.

I don't think the opposition has much to worry about.
The cities will get fibre.  The country will stay on Satellite and
wireless.
Not much change really.
Besides the non TPG bandwidth to the Internet will still only be 640
Gbps, or enough for 6400 homes out of 8,200,000 homes at 100 Mbps
utilisation per user.

What will the other 8,193,600 homes wanting Internet access at 100 Mbps
do ?
They will do what Australians have always done with Internet
connectivity... WAIT.
Kind of makes you wonder who designed this puppy ?

If the NBN don't put in a new pond crossing connection, there wouldn't
seem to be a lot of point to the NBN.

> A former telecommunications adviser and consultant, Kevin 
> Morgan, said 
> the impending deals would make unwinding the network a 
> challenge for any 
> future government. Several pieces of legislation would be extremely 
> difficult to reverse, he said.
> 
> Tomorrow the Communications Minister, Stephen Conroy, is expected to 
> present the competition watchdog with a final copy of his 
> instructions on 
> how it should deal with Telstra's structural separation plans. 

His instructions. In other words, Telstra has had no input into the
drafting of the document ?

> By shutting down its copper and cable networks Telstra will 
> effectively 
> end its monopoly over the fixed communications network in Australia.

Telstra isn't shutting down its cable networks. [4]
Those it is keeping for it's Foxtel deal. 

[1]
http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-top-10-mobile-trends-feb-2
011
[2]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/telecommunications/telstra
-forecasts-mobile-broadband-spectrum-needs/story-fn4iyzsr-1226063451605
[3]
http://www.zdnet.com.au/telstra-bought-ibursts-wireless-spectrum-3392941
17.htm
[4]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstra-keeps-cable-network-in-nbn-deal-2
0100620-ypd5.html