[LINK] astroturf FUD and Lobbying Bull was We're all pirates (again)

[Tom Koltai]

I have quoted extensively below that the piracy argument economically is
proven by PwC to be invalid in Australia.
However, one must remember, that an organisation, any organisation is
merely an organism whose cells are striving for evolutionary survival.

Evolutionary ?
Of course, have you ever heard of CEO's receiving bonus cheques for
merely maintaining the status quo?
No, the organisation has to grow, and to do that, it has to kill other
organisms for nutrients that it so badly requires to continue growing.
(err in this case... Funding moneys from the shareholders...)

Organisms have been known to lie and cheat and to standover smaller
weaker organisms to ensure survival...
(Bribery as in lobbying is also not unknown in the last stages of an
organisms struggle with the inevitability of demise.)

E.g.,: Can anyone here name an Australian company that has operated
since 1780 ?
OK, how about 1880?

(Nope without being M&A'ed)

Not easy...

Therefore all corporations and all business models die, to be replaced
by other more logical and consumer friendly models and I am not talking
about FREE.

The problem is that as they die, their struggles become deafening and
incredibly distracting from the business of Doing Good Business.

So, yes Kim and Richard, it would appear that the story was Astroturf
because the evidence empirically states that IF piracy has any effect on
the media company's it would appear to be a positive one.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Kim Holburn
> Sent: Sunday, 6 March 2011 9:28 AM
> To: Link list
> Subject: Re: [LINK] We're all pirates (again)
> 
> 
> They didn't mention books.  All those pirates who get books 
> for free from their local libraries, all those disgusting 
> pirates who watch stuff for free on their televisions.  
> People who give or lend each other DVDs, books etc.
> 
> This wouldn't be related to a lobbying push resulting from 
> the iinet AFACT case would it?
> 
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/net-pirate-ruling-may-f
orce-isps-to-cut-off-cheats-20110301-1bcr4.html


On 2011/Mar/06, at 8:57 AM, Richard Chirgwin wrote:

> Does anyone else get sick of journalism as lazy as this?
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/technology/nation-of-unrepentant-pirates-cost
> s-900m-20110305-1bix5.html
> 
> One question - just one - would have helped. Like "who is Sphere
> Analysis" (who conducted the research)?
> 
> Answer: a business name registered in NSW last November. Wouldn't that
> raise the suspicion that the whole thing is astroturf?
> 
> (It's more than about time that ASIC published the ownership of
> companies and business names online for free)
> 
> RC
> 
> 

The problem is that their claims are on the backs of a report ...


Quote/ [From:
http://www.dbcde.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/37474/Appendix_C.2_A
ustralian_digital_content_futures.pdf

Summary Page viii


In the preferred future, where a judicious suite of policies is
implemented to overcome the barriers and leverage the drivers
identified previously and where there is more rapid adoption of digital
content technologies and forms of entertainment, the industry is
expected to grow at up to 6.2 percent annually. Output increases to $38
billion by 2015, placing it ahead of industries such as agriculture and
communications. In this scenario, distribution grows fastest at an
annual rate of 6.6 percent compared with 6.1 percent and 6.4 percent
for core and embedded production respectively.

/Quote.

So best case scenario according to http://www.thecie.com.au/ is that if
the Government intervene AND stop piracy via legislative interference
then... The industry is expected to grow by 6.2% annually. 

And 38 billion ? Chicken feed.

Quote/ [Source: PWC Global entertainment and media outlook 2009]
Global spending via online and wireless channels reached $19 billion in
2005 and will increase to $67 billion by 2010
The global entertainment and media (E&M) industry has entered a solid
growth phase and will increase at a 6.6 percent compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) to reach $1.8 trillion in 2010
"Virtually every segment of the entertainment and media industry is
shifting from physical distribution to digital distribution of content,"
said Wayne Jackson, global leader of PricewaterhouseCoopers'
Entertainment & Media Practice. "As this shift continues, we see more
revenue opportunities for entertainment and media companies. So while
physical distribution of content is declining, that decline will be
offset somewhat by digital distribution, which is driving and creating
new growth opportunities."
/Quote

So without Government intervention and even with all those pirates, PwC
the Content industries auditor stated that the predictions of CIE were
blown away, in a positive up-tick fashion DURING A RECESSION.

Further, the good news is that according to PwC the industry
internationally last year grew 7.2% CAGR.

In Australia, we did a little better ...

Quote/ [From:
http://www.pwc.com.au/media-centre/2010/em-outlook-aug10.htm]

The Australian PricewaterhouseCoopers' Entertainment & Media Outlook
2010-2014 says the forecast growth will increase the revenue of the
entertainment and media industry in Australia to $36.2 billion by 2014.

As well as cumulatively growing the industry, each sector - interactive
gaming, internet and subscription television - will grow faster than the
industry's predicted compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). Over the next
five years the CAGR is predicted to be 5.1 percent.

Consumer magazines, newspapers and radio aren't expected to fare as well
with slower growth rates.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, head of technology, information, communications
and entertainment David Wiadrowski says, "Consumers are the secret to
success for individual businesses and the sector as whole. Empowerment
is what consumers want and businesses who can deliver that will grow
successfully in the future."

Mr Wiadrowski says, "The National Broadband Network should be an enabler
for businesses to empower consumers through greater choice and more
competitive broadband prices.

"With machines in homes becoming smarter, people sharing information
through social networks and data being stored in clouds the appetite for
content and speed strengthens.

High-speed broadband connectivity is an opportunity to satisfy
consumers' growing appetites." In retrospect, the Australian
entertainment and media industry grew by 1.1 percent in 2009 compared to
a decline in the global market of 1.8 percent.

Mr Wiadrowski says, "The Australian market has proved it is a resilient
one. In the face of the global slowdown, Australians kept the local
sector fit and healthy, continuing to spend on filmed entertainment,
interactive games, subscription television upgrades and increased
internet access."

Interactive games

Interactive games are the standout performer of the entertainment and
media industry. The strongest of the Australian industry sectors during
2009, interactive games defied the global financial crisis to grow 7.7
percent. Over the next five years, the sector will continue its stellar
growth, expanding at a CAGR of 9.4 percent to reach $2.5 billion in
2014.

The growth of the interactive games sector is expected to be driven
largely by the proliferation of the online and mobile games markets.

Over the forecast period (2010-2014), online games are tipped to rise by
a 20.4 percent CAGR to reach $534 million. Mobile games will increase by
a 15.7 percent CAGR to $496 million.

"Interactive games are a popular alternative to other entertainment
because they are reusable. The appeal of mobile devices like smart
phones, portable gaming devices and now tablets supports this growth,"
Mr Wiadrowski says.

Internet

The Australian internet industry (access and advertising) is expected to
grow from $7 billion in 2009 to $10.6 billion in 2014.

"While the access market matured in 2009 to reach $5.1 billion, robust
growth fuelled by wireless access spending is forecast between 2010 -
2014. We expect the total access market to reach $6.8 billion in 2014, a
5.7 percent CAGR.

"After the downturn of 2009, the online advertising market will
accelerate its growth to reach $3.9 billion in 2014, a 15.4 percent
gain, compounded annually," Mr Wiadrowski said.

Representing a quarter of all internet subscriptions, wireless broadband
is the fastest growing mode of internet access. Online social networking
is a major contributor to the growth, with a 2010 Nielsen global survey
revealing Australians to be the biggest users of social networking sites
globally, in terms of time spent.

Newspapers

In 2009 the Australian newspaper market contracted by 11.4 percent but
improvement in 2010 due to the recovering economy, political and
election spending should take revenue to $5.2 billion. It is expected
that growth will be sustained to 2014 at a compound annual rate of 1.8
percent, including revenues from newspaper websites.

Ongoing migration to digital news and classifieds sites continues to
erode the traditional newspaper model. A decline in both advertising
revenues and unit circulation in 2009 reinforces this shift.

The spread of broadband internet and rising website traffic will drive
digital advertising. Total spending on newspaper print advertising
declined by 15.7 percent in 2009.

Australia's newspaper market however has proved to be more resilient
than the United States or United Kingdom. The Australian industry is
focused on a strategy for sustainability, with both print and digital
models co-existing under single masthead brands. PricewaterhouseCooper's
Outlook now forecasts newspaper revenues with and without advertising
and subscription fees drawn by newspaper websites.

"If the sector is to retain readership and return to positive growth it
will need to continue to invest in multi-platform delivery methods and
business models to monetise online content. This will be assisted by the
expected growth in net-enabled mobile devices," Mr Wiadrowski said.

Radio

Growing at a steady compounded annual rate of 1.7 percent, Australia's
commercial radio sector will deliver revenues of $1 billion in 2014.

"Last year was difficult for all media but radio proved resilient,
declining only 5.6 percent in advertising revenue as compared with an
average decline of more than 8 percent across all other media segments.

"Part of radio's strength is advertisers' increased demand for value.
Radio is seen as a less expensive medium than free-to-air television,"
says Mr Wiadrowski.

Radio had an average cumulative audience of 8.94 million people in 2009,
up from 8.79 million in 2008.

Filmed entertainment

Spending on filmed entertainment will expand at a compounded annual rate
of 3.4 percent to reach $4 billion in 2014.

"Filmed entertainment defied the economic slowdown to grow 7.1 percent
during 2009, reinforcing the reputation of the sector for performing
well during tough economic conditions.

"Box office spending is expected to grow at a solid 4.7 percent
compounded annually over the next five years, spurred on by new
technology such as 3D and record-breaking 'tentpole' films like Avatar.

"In-home digital downloading is forecast to grow at a staggering 117.8
percent per year to reach $126 million in 2014. Demand for rental DVDs
is also expected to stay strong for a number of years as kiosks and
online subscriptions proliferate and until we see an improvement in
internet speeds and download limits," said Mr Wiadrowski.

Free-to-air television

Free-to-air advertising declined by 7.6 percent in 2009 and although hit
hard by the global financial crisis it recovered quicker than
anticipated.

"Free-to-air's resilience confirms its importance to advertisers as a
communication tool. It is traditionally the first medium to recover
after an advertising downturn and is the only medium with the ability to
reach the whole of Australia's population - quickly.

"Media spending on free-to-air confirms that it remains an attractive
advertising option for brand building and retail campaigns.

"The industry has adapted well to time-shifting and ad skipping
technologies by offering more inprogram sponsorships, which are
particularly suited to the reality genre. Furthermore, they are already
adept at selling across their primary and digital platforms and continue
to refine crossplatform opportunities for advertisers via television,
online and through mobile devices.

"While the total audience will continue to fragment through
multi-channelling, increased entertainment choices and the growth of
Internet Protocol TV (IPTV), the premium attached to mass market reach
will remain," says Mr Wiadrowski.

Subscription television

The total market for subscription television is expected to perform
well, growing at a 6.2 percent compound annual rate to reach $3.9
billion in 2014.

Consumer spending on subscription television fees is expected to grow at
a 6.4 percent compound annual rate to reach $3.5 billion over the same
period.

Despite the launch of additional free-to-air digital channels,
advertising on subscription television is expected to grow by a 4.1
percent CAGR reaching $407 million in 2014.

The effect on subscriptions during the global financial crisis and the
launch of free digital channels was offset by the launch of next
generation personal video recorder systems and high definition channels.

"Next generation products should boost retention and increased
profitability.

"Although regulations continue to restrict the broadcasting of sporting
events subscription providers are adapting by developing new products
and striking deals with free-to-air providers to air key fixtures.

"Subscription providers must continue to offer quality content,
including movies and original drama series, to underpin the value of
their services," Mr Wiadrowski says.
/Quote


So 

1.8 trillion versus 38 billion...
Hmmm. 

And global spending expected to reach $67 billion by 2010 (twice that of
the media industry gdp.)
Hmmm.