[LINK] NBN retail cost

[Tom Koltai]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Kim Holburn
> Sent: Friday, 11 March 2011 1:07 PM
> To: Link list
> Subject: Re: [LINK] NBN retail cost
>
<SNIP>
> > 
> <www.zdnet.com.au/50mbps-500gb-on-nbn-may->
cost-81-retail-339308109.htm
> > >
> > 
> > "The details were revealed in the NBN Co three-year corporate plan
> > released by the Federal Government earlier today .. the 
> document did 
> > estimate that a basic 12Mbps downlink/1Mbps uplink plan on 
> the NBN with a 
> > 50GB download limit would cost around $56 (and $24 
> wholesale) while a 
> > customer on a 50Mbps downlink/20Mbps uplink service would 
> expect to pay 
> > around $81 (and $34 wholesale) for 500GB of downloads per month."
> > 
> > So NBN Co plan markups still seem like provider-cash-cow 
> territory to 
> > me.
> 
> I may be wrong about this but as I understand it NBN is the 
> fibre from your home to some kind of NBN POP.  There are 
> probably some limits on the NBN infrastructure, say 1 Gbps.  
> After that it is all ISP from there to some overseas cable. 
> The speed of your ISP connection is related to your ISP and 
> its backhaul.  So giving a figure for x Mbps per month is an 
> ISP cost not an NBN wholesale cost.
> 

Yes good point.
How can the NBN quote for content [international transit component] when
the content is being provided by the third party.

If the :

"basic 12Mbps downlink/1Mbps uplink plan on the NBN with a 
50GB download limit would cost around $56 (and $24 wholesale) "

Is the wholesale cost for only the fibre local loop transit, 

$24.00 per month for traffic from POI to customer premises (say 4.08 km
average distance) assumption [3].

then @ $0.50 per Gb that may be the most expensive carriage network in
the world.

This pricing then means that 3.17 persons per installed location can
watch Video @ 6 Mb per sec for the entire month. Ooops, it's only 12
Mbps per location.... 
OK, Mum and dad can watch the BBC (iPlayer streaming Dr Who globally
soon - legally without having to use a proxy) and junior can watch
something else. 

However for that price I would expect "A" grade cross pond Transit with
<200ms ping times and zero dropped packets.

At 50 cents per Gb, transit (with no content) the wireless plans from
Vodaphone are actually starting to almost look good...

Lets get real, the lowest plan for the average Australian house needs to
be based on assumption [1] 65 GB CAP with 24 Mbps Minimum.

On a lets get real basis, persons will queue and download stuff in the
background assumption [2] therefore we probably need to add 20 GB and 6
Mbps to the afore mentioned total.

Sometimes I thing the guys that did the numbers for the NBN have no real
ISP experience nor do they have teenage kids at home.

How's that Stephen... Make it so, I believe you said... [referring to a
discussion about NBN over the top unrealistic consumer pricing]
  
Assumptions : 

[1] Demographic of Aussie home is no longer 2.3 but an est. 3.1 with the
three being adults [grown up kids at home because we didn't build enough
houses in the last two years]  

[2] TIVO/IQ or generic PVR box with two tuners...

[3] 913000 km road. 8.2 million homes. 114 POI's. density @ 2 persons
per square km.

TomK