[LINK] NBN Expected takeup numbers.

[Tom Koltai]

I've been examining the takeup of FTTH around the world from 2006 till
Q1 2011.

>From the KPN's of several Telco's from the EU and the USA,
Calculation based on FTTH currently connected and not future connection.

Max	0.087955	
Min	0.034075	
Avg	0.061593	

The  Minimum was Q4 2008 - (GFC) so understandable.
The maximum was 8.7%.

Either way, the numbers indicate the price sensitive basis of consumer
broadband subscriptions.
An analysis of prepaid mobile broadband versus a/c plans suggests that
in the future carriers will need to keep their game up or loose their
prepaid customer base overnight.

Hmmm. 8.7% of Australian homes voluntarily signing up for FTTH.. That
equals 791, 594 homes or about half of the Foxtel Subs at a wholesale
price of  $25.00 per month the revenues would be $237,478,359.50  (or
about one quarter of Foxtel's subscriber revenues.)

If we examine Chart of the Day
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-netflix-video-streaming-
domination-2011-5 we see that the average US based internet user leans
towards Netflix for 30% of his/her content.

Maybe the NBN should buy Foxtel to make sure it actually has a revenue
stream.
Or at least perhaps a Fibre Cable to the Internet...
100 Mbits to each Australian Home requires 92 (in 6 years time) Terabits
of overseas capacity (or at 8.7% utilisation only 8 Tb)

Or - if we accept that 25-37% can be cached via CDN, at a bare minimum
we should be laying a 50 Tb Fibre across the pond NOW 
The proposed Perth Singapore ASC cable at 16Tbps is already under rated
for when the NBN turn on the 1 Gb per second. which at 8.7% utilisation
requires 80 Terabits.
Unless Australia can duplicate the NetFlix streaming success (within our
borders), we will need at least 4-5 ASC cables. 

If we start laying them now, we will get change out of 2 billion.  Gee a
Cable to each Continent. Wouldn't that make Oz the perfect place for the
safe Data centre.
What a google (sorry, I meant to say Good) idea.

TomK