[LINK] Neil Young: piracy is the new radio

TKoltai tomk at unwired.com.au
Sat Feb 4 13:56:00 AEDT 2012

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Andy Farkas [mailto:chuzzwassa at gmail.com] 
> Sent: Saturday, 4 February 2012 9:40 AM
> To: TKoltai
> Cc: Link list
> Subject: Re: [LINK] Neil Young: piracy is the new radio
> On Fri, Feb 3, 2012 at 10:03 PM, TKoltai <tomk at unwired.com.au> wrote:
> >
> > In fact, I did a blog a couple of years ago where I researched the 
> > total number of Windows/Dos licences sold by Microsoft and 
> the total 
> > was around 2 billion, with the total number of PC's sold up to 2001 
> > being around 4 billion.
> http://www.worldometers.info/computers/
> "How many computers are there in the world?
> According to Gartner Dataquest's statistics, in April 2002 the
billionth personal computer was shipped. The second billion mark was
supposedly reached in 2007.
> But how many computers are actually in use? According to a report by
Forrester Research, there were over one billion PCs in use worldwide by
the end of 2008.
> And with PC adoption in emerging markets growing fast, it is estimated
that there will be more than two billion PCs in use by 2015, Forrester
> ?
> Therefore, whereas it took 27 years to reach the one billion mark, it
will take only 7 to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion."
> In http://mailman.anu.edu.au/pipermail/link/2010-May/087886.html I 
> quoted my article:
> Thanks for that link. The end of the thread speaks for itself. Made my
morning :)
> -andyf

You're welcome Andy. Just wish I could bring such mirth and merriment to

In regards the Forrester estimates, I'm afraid the manufacturers
shipping figures don't agree with Forrester's enthusiastic projections.
Even Intel are now looking at Mobile Phone CPU's to save their butts.

I think by 2015 we will have less than 700 million PC's operational but
with 5.5 billion ARM and Intel powered multi-processor mobile chips.
(With the exception probably being the yet to be announced 6120 Atheros
60GHz Data Shower Chipset combined CPU...[ok, it's an AP but a logical
extrapolation of possible reasons for them holding back the WiGiG Beta
Release developer chipset this month.])

With the majority of phone manufacturing now emanating from the PRC (10
million per day) and the ensuing dramatic price race to the bottom I can
honestly estimate that the value of the CPU industry will wane to the
point where all of our consumer devices will become CPU enabled at which
time the edge will totally take over from any centralised communications
or computing network via P2P. [Think SETI project].

Some anecdotal evidence of this trend becoming a truism can be observed
in the decreasing number of applicants for the APC Magazines Best
Builder editorial series [traditionally reserved for the top 1% of the
Consumer top 1% hard core gaming fraternity (i7, 32 Gb mem, 4 card
NVIDIA GPU's, etc) and in the number of PC component semiconductor
manufacturers disappearing web pages.

Empirical observations can be made in part by viewing the following 5
slide presentation available in two formats;
http://kovtr.com/data/Link/PC_vs_Cell.ppt 415 KB

With a PDF version for those that really don't like PowerPoint or Gnu
flavoured Star Office
http://kovtr.com/data/Link/PC_vs_Cell.pdf 166 KB
(The differences in file sizes is attributable to the fact that the
charts are embedded paste from Excel and include all the spreadsheet

1.  Convergence Date Mobile and Fixed Line/Services
2.  Declining PC Sales
3.  Why Cellular Broadband is Accelerating in Australia
4.  How Australians Spend 24 hours
5.  83% of Millenials Sleep with their phones

(I regret the above data was circa June 2011 - with the exception of
Slide 3, wherein I added a Tophat reference today).
Additional data is available on request. (There's quite a bit.) But you
could just believe me based on the limited snapshot provided.
Forrester's are wrong and possibly are pandering to the Linus Blanket
comforter requirements of their PC Manufacturing based client base.
(Which is a bit like the Vintners in Tuscany who try to get one more
crop in before the frosts...)


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