[LINK] Propaganda, manipulation and the abuse of media [Was: IPA, astroturfing and fantsy themes/Science under attack]
rchirgwin at ozemail.com.au
Wed Feb 22 14:37:24 AEDT 2012
One point I will make, Bernard; the earliest predictions far predate the
observation of AGW.
The observation of the behaviour of CO2 in air dates back to Lord
Kelvin's era - I can't remember the name of the scientist - and the
earliest hypothesis that warming could result from it is of similar age.
Today's predictions of *consequences* may or may not be accurate. They
may be wrong in either direction, predicting too great a consequence or
too small. However, scientists are now observing things predicted ten or
fifteen years ago; I find such articles with 1990s dates with no
Yes, the extremely complex systems that try to predict (say)
catastrophic storm frequency as a consequence of warming are based on
models which may or may not be accurate, but the "macro" level
observation - that CO2 is trapping heat, the amount of heat trapped, and
the consequent warming we're observing - is well-tested and is
conforming pretty well to prior predictions.
On 22/02/12 1:01 PM, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> Two things:
> 1. the backfire effect
> The "backfire effect" is a term coined by Brendan Nyhan and Jason
> Reifler to describe how some individuals when confronted with evidence
> that conflicts with their beliefs come to hold their original position
> even more strongly.
> 2. I'm not a climate scientist but I do claim to know a quite a bit
> about modelling.
> The models the climate scientists use for their predictions are very
> suspect. They are a) linear (the world is non-linear) and b) they are
> incomplete (they leave out potentially critical effect).
> This means, to me, that the climate change predictions are not to be
> trusted. That does not mean that I doubt global climate change, but I do
> doubt that we understand the impact of human activity. Climate change
> may well be happening faster and more dangerously than the climate
> scientists predict.
> The only sensible course to me is to do as little damage to the
> environment as possible.
> Just MHO.
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